CHX (ChampionX) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2018. Start your Free Trial

What is ChampionX Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

ChampionX Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

ChampionX Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of ChampionX's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

ChampionX Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » ChampionX Corp (NAS:CHX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

2445 Technology Forest Boulevard, Building 4, 12th Floor, Suite 1200, The Woodlands, TX, USA, 77381

Website

https://www.championx.com

ChampionX provides chemical solutions and equipment for onshore and offshore oil and gas production. Its engineering expertise spans the well lifecycle, but the firm maintains a particular focus on the production phase. Key offerings include artificial lift services and drilling technologies, specializing in polycrystalline diamond cutter inserts. ChampionX was formed after Apergy acquired its chemical technologies business from Ecolab in 2020.

Executives

Deric D. Bryant	officer: See remarks	1 ECOLAB PLACE, ST. PAUL MN 55102
William Jr. O'dell	officer: See remarks	2445 TECHNOLOGY FOREST BOULEVARD, BUILDING 4, 12TH FLOOR, THE WOODLANDS TX 77381
Sivasankaran Somasundaram	director, officer: President & CEO	C/O APERGY CORPORATION, 2445 TECHNOLOGY FOREST BLVD, BLD 4, FL 9, THE WOODLANDS TX 77381
Elaine M Pickle	director	ONE ENERGY PLAZA, DETROIT MI 48226
Fierro A Carlos	director	910 LOUISIANA STREET, HOUSTON TX 77002
Paul E Mahoney	officer: See Remarks	C/O APERGY CORPORATION, 2445 TECHNOLOGY FOREST BLVD, BLD 4, FL 9, THE WOODLANDS TX 77381
Antoine Marcos	officer: VP, Corp Controller, CAO	2445 TECHNOLOGY FOREST BOULEVARD, BUILDING 4, 12TH FLOOR, THE WOODLANDS TX 77381
Stephen M. Todd	director	C/O DOVER CORPORATION, 3005 HIGHLAND PARKWAY, SUITE 200, DOWNERS GROVE IL 606515
Julia Wright	officer: Senior VP, GC & Secretary	C/O APERGY CORPORATION, 2445 TECHNOLOGY FOREST BLVD, BLD 4, FL 9, THE WOODLANDS TX 77381
Heidi S Alderman	director	C/O OLIN CORPORATION, 190 CARONDELET PLZ, STE 1530, CLAYTON MO 63105
Stuart D Porter	director	200 CLARENDON ST, 25TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Jordan Zweig	officer: SVP & Chief HR Officer	2445 TECHNOLOGY FOREST BOULEVARD, BUILDING 4, 12TH FLOOR, THE WOODLANDS TX 77381
Syed Raza	officer: SVP & Chief Digital Officer	C/O APERGY CORPORATION, 2445 TECHNOLOGY FOREST BLVD, BLD 4, FL 9, THE WOODLANDS TX 77381
Amy Thompson Broussard	officer: Senior VP & Chief HR Officer	C/O APERGY CORPORATION, 2445 TECHNOLOGY FOREST BLVD, BLD 4, FL 9, THE WOODLANDS TX 77381
Shankar Annamalai	officer: Senior VP Operations	C/O APERGY CORPORATION, 2445 TECHNOLOGY FOREST BLVD, BLD 4, FL 9, THE WOODLANDS TX 77381