CRDE (Cardinal Ethanol LLC) Predictability Rank

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What is Cardinal Ethanol LLC Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Cardinal Ethanol LLC Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Cardinal Ethanol LLC Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Chemicals » Cardinal Ethanol LLC (OTCPK:CRDE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1554 North County Road 600 East, Union City, IN, USA, 47390

Website

https://www.cardinalethanol.com

Cardinal Ethanol LLC is a producer and seller of fuel-grade ethanol, distiller's grains, corn oil, and carbon dioxide throughout the continent of the United States. The company's prime selling products include ethanol, dried distillers grains, corn oil, and carbon dioxide. Its two operating segments are ethanol production through the Ethanol Division; and trading of agricultural grains through the Trading Division. The revenues from Ethanol Division come from primary sources: sales of fuel ethanol which is the key revenue driver. Revenues from the Trading Division are derived from procuring, transporting, and selling grain commodities. The majority of the revenue for the company is generated from its Ethanol Division.

Executives

Adam Kline	director	938 E 58TH STREET, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46220
Chad Smith	director	3665 GOULD DRIVE, CARMEL IN 46033
Gerald R Forsythe	director	600 N BUFFALO GROVE RD, BUFFALO GROVE IL 60089
Danny Ray Huston	director	616 W JACKSON STREET, PARKER CITY IN 47368
Casey Bruns	officer: Commodity Manager	10158 STATE ROUTE 49, ANSONIA OH 45303
Daniel J. Sailer	director	11320 ABBITT TRAIL, ZIONSVILLE IN 46077
Dersch David Matthew Jr	director	113 BENNINGTON ROAD, GREER SC 29650
Roch Lewis M Iii	director	21 GOSS ROAD, NORTH HAMPTON NH 03862
Robert Nathan Baker	director	8124 E. GREENBRIAR COURT, WICHITA KS 67226
Gregory August Roy	officer: Commodity Manager	23308 PAULDING ROAD, MONROEVILLE IN 46773
Jerry Phillip Zicht	director	5653 NORTH US HWY 27, WINCHESTER IN 47394
Adam Zeedyk	officer: Commodity Manager	9 PECK DRIVE, WINCHESTER IN 47394
William J Dartt	officer: Chief Financial Officer	1520 ROSEDALE AVENUE, BUCYRUS OH 44820
Roch Lewis Marshall Ii	director	2006 E. ROBINWOOD DRIVE, MUNCIE IN 47304
Barry J Hudson	director	200 EAST JACKSON STREET, MUNCIE IN 47305

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