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Cheetah Net Supply Chain Service (Cheetah Net Supply Chain Service) Predictability Rank


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What is Cheetah Net Supply Chain Service Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Cheetah Net Supply Chain Service Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Cheetah Net Supply Chain Service Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Cheetah Net Supply Chain Service (Cheetah Net Supply Chain Service) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Vehicles & Parts » Cheetah Net Supply Chain Service Inc (NAS:CTNT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
CZOO JZXN SFTGQ PREC EICCF UXIN KXIN TPE:2207 PAG KMX XBRU:DIE LAD AN HKSE:00881 TSE:4732 ABG GPI LSE:INCH RUSHA CVNA
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
6201 Fairview Road, Suite 225, Charlotte, NC, USA, 28210
Website
Cheetah Net Supply Chain Service Inc is a supplier of parallel-import vehicles sourced in the U.S. to be sold in the China market. The parallel-import vehicles refer to those purchased by dealers directly from overseas markets and imported for sale through channels other than brand manufacturers' official distribution systems. The company purchases automobiles, primarily luxury brands such as Mercedes, BMW, Porsche, Lexus, and Bentley, from the U.S. market and resell them to customers, including both U.S. and PRC parallel-import car dealers. It derive profits primarily from the price difference between our buying and selling prices for parallel-import vehicles.
Executives
Catherine Chen director ONE MILE WEST OF GUANRI, HULI DISTRICT, XIAMEN F4 361000
Huoyuan Chen 10 percent owner QUNZHONGXINCUN VILLAGE, TAIJIANG DIST., 207 BLOCK 5, FUZHOU F4 350000
Adam Eilenberg director 335 MADISON AVENUE, 9TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Walter Penn Folker officer: Vice President of Procurement 7353 BEDFORDSHIRE DRIVE, CHARLOTTE NC 28226
Xianggeng Huang director, 10 percent owner 12-8, A2#BLDG, WANDA PLAZA II, NO.8 AOJIANG RD., AOFENG ST., TAIJIANG, FUZHOU F4 350000
Xiaolin Tang 10 percent owner RM 401, BLDG 25, MOON BAY GARDEN, DONGSHAN ST., JIANGNING DIST., NANJING F4 211100
Yan Xiao 10 percent owner LANGYUAN 2-3001, XINGHEWAN COMM., SIJI XINGHE MID ST., CHAOYANG N. RD., BEIJING F4 100000
Ying-chang Yuan 10 percent owner 4752 MOUNT ROYAL LN, CHARLOTTE NC 28210
Vladimir Gavrilovic director 70 ELM STREET, APT 1, NORTH ARLINGTON NJ 07031
Huan Liu director, 10 percent owner, officer: See Remarks 6201 FAIRVIEW RD, STE 225, CHARLOTTE NC 28210