Dupont Fabros Technology (Dupont Fabros Technology) Predictability Rank

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What is Dupont Fabros Technology Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Dupont Fabros Technology Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Dupont Fabros Technology (Dupont Fabros Technology) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » Dupont Fabros Technology Inc (NYSE:DFTPRACL.PFD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Website

http://www.dft.com

Dupont Fabros Technology, or DFT, is a real estate investment trust engaged in the design and operation of multitenant, wholesale data centers in metropolitan areas across the United States. The company provides the space and infrastructure, such as electrical power, security, and fire suppression services for customers to operate their servers and computing equipment. Its real estate portfolio is composed of large data centers located in the Northern Virginia, Chicago, Greater New York City, and Santa Clara, California areas. DFT derives the majority of its income in the form of rental revenue from tenants in short- to medium-term lease agreements. The company's major customers are technology companies, including Microsoft, Facebook, and Yahoo, which account for most of its revenue.

Executives

Brian D Doricko	officer: SVP, Chief Revenue Officer	1212 NEW YORK AVENUE,NW,SUITE 900, WASHINGTON DC 20005
Mary M Styer	director	1212 NEW YORK AVENUE, NW, SUITE 900, WASHINGTON DC 20005
Scott A Davis	officer: EVP, Operations	401 9TH STREET, NW #600, WASHINGTON DC 20005
Christopher P. Eldredge	director, officer: President and CEO	401 9TH STREET, NW #600, WASHINGTON DC 20004
Frederic V Malek	director	C/O THAYER LODGING GROUP, 1730 PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE NW #525, WASHINGTON DC 20006
James Warren Armstrong	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	401 9TH STREET, NW #600, WASHINGTON DC 20005
Maria Kenny	officer: SVP Finance & Treasurer	401 9TH STREET, NW #600, WASHINGTON DC 20004
Jonathan G Heiliger	director	JIVE SOFTWARE, INC., 325 LYTTON AVENUE, SUITE 200, PALO ALTO CA 94301
Roberts John T Jr	director
Thomas D Eckert	director	1997 ANNAPOLIS EXCHANGE PARKWAY, SUITE 410, ANNAPOLIS MD 21401
Hossein Fateh	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O DUPONT FABROS TECHNOLOGY, INC., 1212 NEW YORK AVENUE, NW, STE 900, WASHINGTON DC 20005
Du Pont Lammot J	director, officer: Executive Chairman	C/O DUPONT FABROS TECHNOLOGY, INC., 401 9TH STREET, NW #600, WASHINGTON DC 20004
Mark Amin	director	2700 COLORADO AVE., SANTA MONICA CA 90404
Michael A Coke	director	TERRENO REALTY CORPORATION, 101 MONTGOMERY STREET, SUITE 200, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
John H Toole	director	250 FARMINGTON DRIVE, CHARLOTTESVILLE VA 22901