Solo Brands (Solo Brands) Predictability Rank

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What is Solo Brands Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Solo Brands Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Solo Brands Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Solo Brands (Solo Brands) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Retail - Cyclical » Solo Brands Inc (NYSE:DTC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1001 Mustang Drive, Suite 121, Grapevine, TX, USA, 76051

Website

https://www.solostove.com

Solo Brands Inc is a Direct-To-Consumer (DTC) platform. It operates four premium outdoor lifestyle brands Solo Stove, Oru, ISLE, and Chubbies apparel. Solo Stove offers portable, low-smoke fire pits, grills, and camping stoves for backyard and outdoor use in different sizes, fire pit bundles, gear kits, stoves, cookware, dinnerware, and a variety of clothing and accessories. Oru offers a flagship line of lightweight, foldable kayaks. ISLE produces high-quality stand-up paddle boards with colorful designs that are engineered to accommodate every skill level, style, and interest. Chubbies is a fun-loving, premium apparel brand that offers well-fitted comfortable clothing. Solo Brands distributes its products through individual brand websites and other partners.

Executives

Somer Webb	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O SOLO BRANDS, INC., 1001 MUSTANG DRIVE, GRAPEVILLE TX 76051
Bertram Growth Capital Iii Annex Fund, L.p.	10 percent owner	950 TOWER LANE, SUITE 1000, FOSTER CITY CA 94404
Nb Crossroads Private Markets Fund V Holdings Lp	10 percent owner	C/O NEUBERGER BERMAN INVESTMENT ADVISERS, 1290 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10104
Bertram Growth Capital Iii, L.p.	10 percent owner	800 CONCAR DRIVE, SUITE 100, SAN MATEO CA 94402
Bertram Growth Capital Iii-a, L.p.	10 percent owner	800 CONCAR DRIVE, SUITE 100, SAN MATEO CA 94402
John Merris	director, officer: See Remarks	C/O SOLO BRANDS, INC., 1070 S. KIMBALL AVENUE, SUITE 121, SOUTHLAKE TX 76092
Michael C. Dennison	director	C/O FOX FACTORY HOLDING CORP., 2055 SUGARLOAF CIRCLE, SUITE 300, DULUTH GA 30097
David Powers	director	495-A SOUTH FAIRVIEW AVE, GOLETA CA 93117
Samuel Morin Simmons	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O SOLO BRANDS, INC., 1070 S. KIMBALL AVENUE, SUITE 121, SOUTHLAKE TX 76092
Kent Roger Christensen	officer: General Counsel	C/O SOLO BRANDS, INC., 1070 S. KIMBALL AVENUE, SUITE 121, SOUTHLAKE TX 76092
Matthew Scott Webb	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O SOLO BRANDS, INC., 1070 S. KIMBALL AVENUE, SUITE 121, SOUTHLAKE TX 76092
Summit Partners L P	10 percent owner	222 BERKELEY STREET, 18TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Nb Select Opps Ii Mhf Lp	10 percent owner	325 N. SAINT PAUL STREET, SUITE 4900, DALLAS TX 75201
Paul Furer	director	C/O SOLO BRANDS, INC., 1070 S. KIMBALL AVENUE, SUITE 121, SOUTHLAKE TX 76092
William R Castillo	officer: Chief Product Officer	C/O SOLO BRANDS, INC., 1070 S. KIMBALL AVENUE, SUITE 121, SOUTHLAKE TX 76092