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ELEV (Elevation Oncology) Predictability Rank


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What is Elevation Oncology Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Elevation Oncology Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Elevation Oncology Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Elevation Oncology's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Elevation Oncology Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
101 Federal Street, Suite 1900, New York, NY, USA, 02110
Elevation Oncology Inc is an oncology company focused on the development of selective cancer therapies to treat patients across a range of solid tumors with unmet medical needs. Its product candidate, EO-3021 (also known as SYSA1801 or CPO102), is an ADC comprised of a fully human anti-Claudin 18.2 immunoglobulin G1 (IgG1) monoclonal antibody (mAb) site-specifically conjugated with a cleavable linker to the cytotoxic monomethyl auristatin E (MMAE) payload. Claudin 18.2 is overexpressed in several types of cancers, including gastric, esophageal, pancreatic, ovarian and lungon.
Executives
Tammy Furlong officer: CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER C/O ELEVATION ONCOLOGY, INC., 888 SEVENTH AVENUE, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10106
Venbio Global Strategic Gp Iii, L.p. 10 percent owner 1700 OWENS STREET, SUITE 595, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94158
Venbio Global Strategic Fund Iii, L.p. 10 percent owner 1700 OWENS STREET, SUITE 595, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94158
Goodman Corey S 10 percent owner 1700 OWENS STREET, SUITE 595, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94158
Robert J Adelman 10 percent owner 1700 OWENS STREET, SUITE 595, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94158
Aaron Royston 10 percent owner 200 CARDINAL WAY, 2ND FLOOR, REDWOOD CITY CA 94063
David Dornan officer: Chief Scientific Officer C/O BOLT BIOTHERAPEUTICS, INC., 640 GALVESTON DRIVE, REDWOOD CITY CA 94063
Valerie Malyvanh Jansen officer: Chief Medical Officer C/O ELEVATION ONCOLOGY, INC., 888 SEVENTH AVENUE, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10106
Cormorant Asset Management, Lp 10 percent owner 200 CLARENDON STREET, 52ND FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Andrew N Schiff other: Managing Member PLANET ZANETT INC, 135 E 57TH ST, NEW YORK NY 10022
Steve Elms director, other: Managing Member 888 SEVENTH AVE, 29TH FL, NEW YORK NY 10106
Venbio Global Strategic Gp Iii, Ltd 10 percent owner 1700 OWENS STREET, SUITE 595, SAN FRANCISCI CA 94158
Qiming U.s. Healthcare Gp Ii, Llc 10 percent owner 11100 NE 8TH ST, SUITE 200, BELLEVUE WA 98004
Vertex Global Hc Fund Ii Pte. Ltd. 10 percent owner 250 NORTH BRIDGE ROAD, #11-01 RAFFLES CITY TOWER, SINGAPORE U0 179101
Walsh Colin director C/O ELEVATION ONCOLOGY, INC., 888 SEVENTH AVENUE, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10106