ELEV (Elevation Oncology) Predictability Rank

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What is Elevation Oncology Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Elevation Oncology Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Elevation Oncology Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Elevation Oncology Inc (NAS:ELEV) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

101 Federal Street, Suite 1900, New York, NY, USA, 02110

Website

https://www.elevationoncology.com

Elevation Oncology Inc is an oncology company focused on the development of selective cancer therapies to treat patients across a range of solid tumors with unmet medical needs. Its product candidate, EO-3021 (also known as SYSA1801 or CPO102), is an ADC comprised of a fully human anti-Claudin 18.2 immunoglobulin G1 (IgG1) monoclonal antibody (mAb) site-specifically conjugated with a cleavable linker to the cytotoxic monomethyl auristatin E (MMAE) payload. Claudin 18.2 is overexpressed in several types of cancers, including gastric, esophageal, pancreatic, ovarian and lungon.

Executives

Tammy Furlong	officer: CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER	C/O ELEVATION ONCOLOGY, INC., 888 SEVENTH AVENUE, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10106
Venbio Global Strategic Gp Iii, L.p.	10 percent owner	1700 OWENS STREET, SUITE 595, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94158
Venbio Global Strategic Fund Iii, L.p.	10 percent owner	1700 OWENS STREET, SUITE 595, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94158
Goodman Corey S	10 percent owner	1700 OWENS STREET, SUITE 595, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94158
Robert J Adelman	10 percent owner	1700 OWENS STREET, SUITE 595, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94158
Aaron Royston	10 percent owner	200 CARDINAL WAY, 2ND FLOOR, REDWOOD CITY CA 94063
David Dornan	officer: Chief Scientific Officer	C/O BOLT BIOTHERAPEUTICS, INC., 640 GALVESTON DRIVE, REDWOOD CITY CA 94063
Valerie Malyvanh Jansen	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O ELEVATION ONCOLOGY, INC., 888 SEVENTH AVENUE, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10106
Cormorant Asset Management, Lp	10 percent owner	200 CLARENDON STREET, 52ND FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Andrew N Schiff	other: Managing Member	PLANET ZANETT INC, 135 E 57TH ST, NEW YORK NY 10022
Steve Elms	director, other: Managing Member	888 SEVENTH AVE, 29TH FL, NEW YORK NY 10106
Venbio Global Strategic Gp Iii, Ltd	10 percent owner	1700 OWENS STREET, SUITE 595, SAN FRANCISCI CA 94158
Qiming U.s. Healthcare Gp Ii, Llc	10 percent owner	11100 NE 8TH ST, SUITE 200, BELLEVUE WA 98004
Vertex Global Hc Fund Ii Pte. Ltd.	10 percent owner	250 NORTH BRIDGE ROAD, #11-01 RAFFLES CITY TOWER, SINGAPORE U0 179101
Walsh Colin	director	C/O ELEVATION ONCOLOGY, INC., 888 SEVENTH AVENUE, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10106