What is Eaton Vance New York Municipal Bond Fund Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Eaton Vance New York Municipal Bond Fund Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Eaton Vance New York Municipal Bond Fund Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
One Post Office Square, Boston, MA, USA, 02109
Eaton Vance New York Municipal Bond Fund is principally engaged in managing investment funds and providing investment management and advisory services to high-net-worth individuals and institutions. It is a non-diversified, closed-end investment company. Its objective is to provide current income exempt from regular federal income tax, including alternative minimum tax, and, in state specific funds, taxes in specified state.
Executives
| Saba Capital Management, L.p. |
10 percent owner |
405 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 58TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10174 |
| Kenneth A Topping |
officer: President |
TWO INTERNATIONAL PLACE, BOSTON MA 02110 |
| Paul Metheny |
other: Portfolio Manager |
TWO INTERNATIONAL PLACE, BOSTON MA 02110 |
| Faust Thomas E Jr |
other: Management Committee of Eaton |
255 STATE STREET, BOSTON MA 02109 |
| Anchal Pachnanda |
officer: Officer |
TWO INTERNATIONAL PLACE, BOSTON MA 02110 |
| Alan C. Bowser |
other: Trustee |
TWO INTERNATIONAL PLACE, BOSTON MA 02110 |
| Nicholas Dilorenzo |
officer: Secretary |
TWO INTERNATIONAL PLACE, BOSTON MA 02110 |
| Boaz Weinstein |
10 percent owner |
405 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 58TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10174 |
| Nancy A Wiser |
other: Trustee |
WELLS FARGO FUNDS MANAGEMENT, 200 BERKELEY STREET, 19TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116 |
| Jill Damon |
officer: Secretary |
TWO INTERNATIONAL PLACE, BOSTON MA 02110 |
| Kimberly M Roessiger |
officer: Secretary |
TWO INTERNATIONAL PLACE, BOSTON MA 02110 |
| Deidre E Walsh |
officer: Vice President |
TWO INTERNATIONAL PLACE, BOSTON MA 02110 |
| Eric Stein |
officer: President |
TWO INTERNATIONAL PLACE, BOSTON MA 02110 |
| Christopher J. Eustance |
officer: Portfolio Manager |
TWO INTERNATIONAL PLACE, BOSTON MA 02110 |
| Keith Quinton |
other: Trustee |
TWO INTERNATIONAL PLACE, BOSTON MA 02110 |
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