Exact Sciences (Exact Sciences) Predictability Rank

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What is Exact Sciences Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Exact Sciences Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Exact Sciences (Exact Sciences) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Diagnostics & Research » Exact Sciences Corp (NAS:EXAS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

EXK:Germany

Address

5505 Endeavor Lane, Madison, WI, USA, 53719

Website

https://www.exactsciences.com

Exact Sciences Corporation, headquartered in Madison, Wisconsin, provides cancer screening and diagnostic test products in the United States and internationally. Exact's Cologuard screening test, a noninvasive stool-based DNA test, is a pre-cancer screening test for colorectal cancer. The company also competes in the precision oncology market with Oncotype DX, a suite of tissue-based genomic tests for estimating recurrence risk and likelihood of benefit from chemotherapy for breast and colon cancer, and OncoExTra, a liquid-based comprehensive genomic profiling test. It is developing liquid biopsy tests for molecular residual disease, colorectal cancer screening, and multicancer screening, too.

Executives

Brian Baranick	officer: Gen. Mgr., Precision Oncology	441 CHARMANY DRIVE, MADISON WI 53719
Sarah Condella	officer: SVP, Human Resources	441 CHARMANY DRIVE, MADISON WI 53719
Timothy J Scannell	director	2825 AIRVIEW BOULEVARD, KALAMAZOO MI 49002
Everett Cunningham	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	C/O QUEST DIAGNOSTICS, 500 PLAZA DRIVE, SECAUCUS NJ 07094
Jeffrey Thomas Elliott	officer: Chief Financial Officer	5505 ENDEAVOR LANE, MADISON WI 53719
James Edward Doyle	director	5505 ENDEAVOR LANE, MADISON WI 53719
James Herriott	officer: General Counsel	5505 ENDEAVOR LANE, MADISON WI 53719
Katherine S Zanotti	director	431 E 9TH STREET, HINSDALE IL 60521
Jacob A Orville	officer: General Manager, New Ventures	5505 ENDEAVOR LANE, MADISON WI 53719
Kevin T Conroy	director, officer: Vice President	5505 ENDEAVOR LANE, MADISON WI 53719
D Scott Coward	officer: SVP and General Counsel	441 CHARMANY DRIVE, MADISON WI 53719
Paul J Clancy	director	C/O BIOGEN IDEC INC., 14 CAMBRIDGE CENTER, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Graham Peter Lidgard	officer: SVP, Chief Scientific Officer	5505 ENDEAVOR LANE, MADISON WI 53719
Michael S Wyzga	director	RADIUS HEALTH, INC., 201 BROADWAY, 6TH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Torsten Hoof	officer: General Manager, International	301 PENOBSCOT DRIVE, REDWOOD CITY CA 94063