FAM (First Trust/aberdeen Global Oppoome) Predictability Rank

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What is First Trust/aberdeen Global Oppoome Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

First Trust/aberdeen Global Oppoome Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

First Trust/aberdeen Global Oppoome Predictability Rank Related Terms

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First Trust/aberdeen Global Oppoome Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » First Trust/aberdeen Global Oppo Income (NYSE:FAM) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

120 East Liberty Drive, Suite 400, Wheaton, IL, USA, 60187

Website

https://www.ftportfolios.com

First Trust/aberdeen Global Oppo Income is a United States-based diversified, closed-end management investment company. The fund's primary investment objective is to seek a high level of current income while its secondary objective is to seek capital appreciation. The fund seeks to achieve these objectives by investing its managed assets in the world bond markets through a diversified portfolio of investment-grade and below-investment-grade government and corporate debt securities.

Executives

Bronwyn Wright	director	FIRST TRUST ADVISORS L.P., 120 EAST LIBERTY DRIVE, SUITE 400, WHEATON IL 60187
Jaclyn Marie Matsick	other: Director-Investment Advisor	C/O ABRDN, 1900 MARKET STREET, SUITE 200, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Marika Tooze	director	C/O ABRDN, 1900 MARKET STREET, SUITE 200, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Thomas R Kadlec	director	C/O FIRST TRUST ADVISORS LP, 120 EAST LIBERTY DRIVE, SUITE 400, WHEATON IL 60187
M Keefe Denise	director	C/O FIRST TRUST ADVISORS L.P., 120 EAST LIBERTY DRIVE, SUITE 400, WHEATON IL 60187
Kelly Catherine Dehler	other: Officer-Investment Advisor	C/O FIRST TRUST ADVISORS L.P., 120 EAST LIBERTY DRIVE, SUITE 400, WHEATON IL 60187
George W Karpus	other: See Explanation of Responses
Scott Michael Friske	other: Officer-Investment Advisor	FIRST TRUST ADVISORS L.P., 120 EAST LIBERTY DRIVE, SUITE 400, WHEATON IL 60187
Mickey Janvier	other: Director of Sub-Adviser	C/O ABERDEEN STANDARD INVESTMENTS, 1900 MARKET STREET, SUITE 200, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
James Joseph O'connor	other: Director of Sub-Adviser	C/O ABERDEEN STANDARD INVESTMENTS, 1900 MARKET STREET, SUITE 200, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Joseph Andolina	other: Officer-Investment Sub-Advisor	1735 MARKET STREET, 32ND FLOOR, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Karpus Management, Inc.	10 percent owner	183 SULLY'S TRAIL, PITTSFORD NY 14534
Chris Demetriou	other: Officer-Invest. Sub-Advisor	1735 MARKET STREET, 32ND FLOOR, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Robert F Keith	director	C/O FIRST TRUST ADVISORS L.P., 120 EAST LIBERTY DRIVE, SUITE 400, WHEATON IL 60187
Ralph Bassett	other: Officer-Investment Sub-Advisor	1735 MARKET ST., 32ND FLOOR, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103