FATBB (FAT Brands) Predictability Rank

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What is FAT Brands Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

FAT Brands Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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FAT Brands Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Restaurants » FAT Brands Inc (NAS:FATBB) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

FATBP.PFD:USA FAT:USA 5PN:Germany

Address

9720 Wilshire Boulevard, Suite 500, Beverly Hills, CA, USA, 90212

Website

https://www.fatbrands.com

FAT Brands Inc is a multi-brand restaurant franchising company. It develops, markets, acquires and manages quick service, fast casual, casual dining, and polished casual dining restaurant concepts around the world. The company operates as a franchisor of restaurants, where the company generally does not own or operate the restaurant locations but rather generates revenue by charging franchisees an initial franchise fee as well as ongoing royalties. For some of the company's brands, it also directly owns and operates restaurant locations. Its brands include Round Table Pizza, Fatburger, Johnny Rockets, Twin Peaks, and Elevation Burger among others. Geographically, the majority of the revenue for the company is generated from the United States and the rest from other countries.

Executives

Lynne Leigh Collier	director	8523 FOREST HILLS BLVD, DALLAS TX 75218
Allen Sussman	officer: General Counsel	9720 WILSHIRE BLVD., SUITE 500, BEVERLY HILLS CA 90212
Robert Rosen	officer: EVP Capital Markets
Amy Valentine Forrestal	director	6330 MOUNTAIN BROOK LANE, ATLANTA GA 30328
Kenneth Jeffery Anderson	director	11150 SANTA MONICA BLVD, STE 400, LOS ANGELES CA 90025
Rachel Serruya	10 percent owner	1179 KATELLA STREET, LAGUNA BEACH CA 92651
Hot Gfg Llc	10 percent owner	210 SHIELDS COURT, MARKHAM A6 L3R 8V2
Kenneth J. Kuick	officer: Chief Financial Officer	520 ZANG ST., UNIT D, BROOMFIELD CO 80021
Taylor Andrew Wiederhorn	officer: Chief Development Officer	9720 WILSHIRE BLVD,, SUITE 500, BEVERLY HILLS CA 90212
Thayer Donald Wiederhorn	officer: Chief Marketing Officer	9720 WILSHIRE BLVD,, SUITE 500, BEVERLY HILLS CA 90212
Fog Cutter Holdings, Llc	10 percent owner	9720 WILSHIRE BLVD, SUITE 500, BEVERLY HILLS CA 90212
Rebecca D Hershinger	officer: CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER	C/O GENIUS BRANDS INTERNATIONAL, INC., 9401 WILSHIRE BLVD. #608, BEVERLY HILLS CA 90212
Toni Mario Bianco	officer: PRESIDENT / COO - FATBURGER	4029 BALLARD WOODS DRIVE, SMITHFILED KY 40068
Fog Cutter Capital Group Inc	10 percent owner	1310 S W 17TH ST, PORTLAND OR 97201
Silvia Kessel	director	METROMEDIA CO, ONE MEADOWLANDS PLAZA, EAST RUTHERFORD NJ 07073