FFIN (First Financial Bankshares) Predictability Rank

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What is First Financial Bankshares Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

First Financial Bankshares Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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First Financial Bankshares Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » First Financial Bankshares Inc (NAS:FFIN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

FI6:Germany

Address

400 Pine Street, Abilene, TX, USA, 79601

Website

https://www.ffin.com

First Financial Bankshares Inc is a financial and bank holding company. The company operates one line of business (community banking) located in a single geographic area (Texas). The company conducts a full-service commercial banking business through its subsidiaries. The loan portfolio segments of the company include Commercial and Industrial, Municipal, Agricultural, Construction and Development, Farm, Non-Owner Occupied and Owner Occupied Commercial Real Estate, Residential, Consumer Auto and Consumer Non-Auto. It derives maximum revenue from Construction and Development Segment.

Executives

Johnny Trotter	director	400 PINE STREET, C/O FIRST FINANCIAL BANKSHARES, ABILENE TX 79601
Nickles Robert Clark Jr	director	24503 OLD WINDMILL TRAIL, HOCKLEY TX 77447
F Scott Dueser	director	400 PINE ST, ABILENE TX 79601
Murray Hamilton Edwards	director	5423 FM 3217, CLYDE TX 79510
Michael B. Denny	director	1202 ELMWOOD DRIVE, ABILENE TX 79605
Michelle S Hickox	officer: EVP/CFO	1600 REDBUD BOULEVARD, SUITE 400, MCKINNEY TX 75069
Anthony April Kaye Bullock	director	3606 PRINCETON AVENUE, DALLAS TX 75205
Kade Matthews	director	400 PINE STREET, C/O FIRST FINANCIAL BANKSHARES, ABILENE TX 79601
Eli Jones	director	200 WEST CONGRESS STREET, LAFAYETTE LA 70501
David William Bailey	officer: EVP, Commercial Banking	P.O. BOX 1581, EASTLAND TX 76448
David L Copeland	director	PO BOX 2791, ABILENE TX 79604
Tucker S Bridwell	director	400 PINE STE 1000, ABILENE TX 79601
James R Gordon	officer: EVP-CFO	104 SOUTH MAIN STREET, GREENVILLE SC 29601
Vianei Lopez Braun	director	801 CHERRY STREET, SUITE 2000, FT WORTH TX 76102
Ronald N Giddiens	director	5808 PECAN VALLEY, SAN ANGELO TX 76904-9531