FHI (Federated Hermes) Predictability Rank

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What is Federated Hermes Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Federated Hermes Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Federated Hermes Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » Federated Hermes Inc (NYSE:FHI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

3KC:Germany

Address

1001 Liberty Avenue, Pittsburgh, PA, USA, 15222-3779

Website

https://www.federatedhermes.com

Federated Hermes provides asset-management services for institutional and individual investors. The firm had $800 billion in managed assets at the end of September 2024, composed of equity (10%), multi-asset (less than 1%), fixed-income (12%), alternative (3%), and money market (74%) funds. The firm's cash-management operations are expected to generate around 51% of Federated's revenue this year, compared with 29%, 12%, and 7%, respectively, for the equity, fixed-income, and alternatives/multi-asset operations. The company's products are distributed via trust banks, wealth managers, and retail broker/dealers (65% of AUM), institutional investors (26%), and international clients (9%).

Executives

Saker Anwar Nusseibeh	officer: CEO, Hermes Fund Managers Ltd.	HERMES INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, 150 CHEAPSIDE, 6TH FLOOR, LONDON X0 EC2V6ET
Richard A Novak	officer: Principal Accounting Officer	FEDERATED INVESTORS INC., FEDERATED INVESTORS TOWER, PITTSBURGH PA 15222-3779
Paul A Uhlman	officer: Vice President	1001 LIBERTY AVENUE, PITTSBURGH PA 15222-3779
Meter Stephen Van	officer: VP, Chief Compliance Officer	FEDERATED INVESTORS TOWER, 1001 LIBERTY AVENUE, PITTSBURGH PA 15222-3779
John B Fisher	director, officer: Pres Inst Sales Div. FSC	1001 LIBERTY AVENUE, FEDERATED INVESTORS TOWER, PITTSBURGH PA 15222-3779
Dolores D Dudiak	officer: Vice President	1001 LIBERTY AVENUE, 19TH FLOOR, PITTSBURGH PA 15222
Peter J Germain	officer: EVP, Chief Legal Officer & GC	C/O FEDERATED INVESTORS, 1001 LIBERTY AVE, PITTSBURGH PA 15222
Gordon J Ceresino	officer: Exec. Director, Int'l Dist.	FEDERATED MDT ADVISER, 125 HIGH STREET, OLIVER STREET TOWER, 21ST FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02110
J Christopher Donahue	director, officer: President and CEO	5800 CORPORATE DRIVE, PITTSBURGH PA 15237-7000
Michael J Farrell	director	1001 LIBERTY AVENUE, FEDERATED INVESTORS TOWER, PITTSBURGH PA 15222-3779
Thomas R Donahue	director, officer: VP, CFO, Treasurer	5800 CORPORATE DRIVE, PITTSBURGH PA 15237-7000
Marie Milie Jones	director	FEDERATED INVESTORS TOWER, 1001 LIBERTY AVENUE, PITTSBURGH PA 15222-3779
Eugene F Maloney	director, officer: Vice President	FEDERATED INVESTORS TOWER, 1001 LIBERTY AVENUE, PITTSBURGH PA 15222-3779
Joseph C Bartolacci	director
Thomas E Territ	officer: Vice President	FEDERATED INVESTORS, INC., FEDERATED INVESTORS TOWER, PITTSBURGH PA 15222-3779