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Flame Acquisition (Flame Acquisition) Predictability Rank


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What is Flame Acquisition Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Flame Acquisition Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Flame Acquisition Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Flame Acquisition (Flame Acquisition) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Flame Acquisition Corp (NYSE:FLME.U) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
GAQ LCW BCSA VCXB EVE SUAC VAQC CHEA HCMA ACRO PBAJ SVMB SCRM CVII AAC GHIX ALCC AACT DWAC SAGA
Traded in Other Exchanges
FLME:USA
Address
700 Milam Street, Suite 3300, Houston, TX, USA, 77002
Website
https://www.flameacq.com
Flame Acquisition Corp is a blank check company.
Executives
Global Icav Pilgrim 10 percent owner 21-23 CITY QUAY, RIVERVIEW HOUSE, DUBLIN L2 D2
Pilgrim Global Advisors Llc 10 percent owner 4785 CAUGHLIN PARKWAY, RENO NV 89519
Darren Maupin 10 percent owner C/O PILGRIM GLOBAL ADVISORS LLC, 4785 CAUGHLIN PARKWAY, RENO NV 89519
James C Flores director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO & President P.O. BOX 1083, HOUSTON TX 77251
Christopher Binyon Sarofim director 200 EAST RANDOLPH STREET, SUITE 3300, CHICAGO IL 60601
Gregory Phillip Pipkin director 11227 SMITHDALE ROAD, HOUSTON TX 77024
Flame Acquisition Sponsor Llc 10 percent owner C/O FLAME ACQUISITION CORP., 700 MILAM STREET, SUITE 3300, HOUSTON TX 77002
Gregory D. Patrinely officer: CFO & Secretary C/O FLAME ACQUISITION CORP., 700 MILAM STREET, SUITE 3300, HOUSTON TX 77002
Michael E. Dillard director C/O FLAME ACQUISITION CORP., 700 MILAM STREET, SUITE 3300, HOUSTON TX 77002

Flame Acquisition (Flame Acquisition) Headlines

From GuruFocus

Flame Acquisition Corp. Announces Stockholder Approval of Extension Proposal

By Business Wire Business Wire • 03-01-2023

Flame Acquisition Corp. Receives Expected NYSE Notice Regarding Delayed Form 10-Q Filing

By Business Wire Business Wire • 06-01-2021

Could Insider Buying Signal that Flame Acquisition Corp Is Undervalued?

By GuruFocus Research GuruFocus Editor • 12-09-2022

Flame Acquisition Corp. Announces Business Combination Transaction

By Business Wire Business Wire • 11-02-2022

Flame Acquisition Corp. Announces Stockholder Approval of Extension Proposal

By Business Wire • 08-31-2023