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Zale (FRA:ZLC) Predictability Rank


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What is Zale Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Zale Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Zale Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Zale's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Zale Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
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Address
Zale Corporation was incorporated in Delaware in 1993. The company is a specialty retailer of fine jewelry in North America. At July 31, 2012, it operated 1,124 specialty retail jewelry stores and 654 kiosks located mainly in shopping malls throughout the United States, Canada and Puerto Rico. It report its operations under three business segments: Fine Jewelry, Kiosk Jewelry and All Other. Fine Jewelry is comprised of five brands, predominantly focused on the value-oriented consumer as its core guest target. Each brand specializes in fine jewelry and watches, with merchandise and marketing emphasis focused on diamond products. Zales Jewelers is its national brand in the U.S. providing moderately priced jewelry to a broad range of guests. Zales Outlet operates in outlet malls and neighborhood power centers and capitalizes on Zales Jewelers' national advertising and brand recognition. Gordon's Jewelers is a value-oriented regional jeweler. Peoples Jewellers, Canada's largest fine jewelry retailer, provides guests with an affordable assortment and an accessible shopping experience. Mappins Jewellers offers Canadian guests a broad selection of merchandise from engagement rings to fashionable and contemporary fine jewelry. Kiosk Jewelry operates under the brand names Piercing Pagoda, Plumb Gold, and Silver and Gold Connection (collectively, 'Piercing Pagoda') through mall-based kiosks, and is focused on the opening price point jewelry guest. Its presence in Kiosk Jewelry has been expanded through the e-commerce site, www.pagoda.com. Internet sales totaled $1.9 million in fiscal year 2012 compared to $1.4 million in fiscal year 2011. It also offers its guests the option to purchase warranty coverage on certain products. At July 31, 2012, Piercing Pagoda operated 654 locations in 41 states and Puerto Rico, sales from which accounted for 13 percent of its total revenues in fiscal year 2012. It provides insurance and reinsurance services for various types of insurance coverage, which are marketed primarily to its private label credit card guests, through Zale Indemnity Company, Zale Life Insurance Company and Jewel Re-Insurance Ltd. These three companies are the insurers (either through direct written or reinsurance contracts) of its guests' credit insurance coverage. In addition to providing merchandise replacement coverage for certain perils, credit insurance coverage provides protection to the creditor and cardholder for losses associated with the disability, involuntary unemployment, leave of absence or death of the cardholder.

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