GBIM (GlobeImmune) Predictability Rank

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What is GlobeImmune Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

GlobeImmune Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

GlobeImmune Predictability Rank Related Terms

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GlobeImmune Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » GlobeImmune Inc (OTCPK:GBIM) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1450 Infinite Drive, Louisville, CO, USA, 80027

Website

https://globeimmune.com

GlobeImmune Inc is a U.S.-based biopharmaceutical company which focuses on developing products for the treatment of cancer and infectious diseases based on its proprietary Tarmogen platform. It develops few Tarmogen product candidates for infectious disease and multiple cancer indications. The pipeline products of the company are GS-4774, GI-19000, GI-2010, GI-18000 which targets HBV and HIV antigens, TB antigens and Delta virus antigens and Oncology product candidates such as GI-6207, GI-6301, GI4000 which targets Carcinoembryonic antigen, Brachyury, and Mutated Ras.

Executives

Augustine Lawlor	director	55 CAMBRIDGE PARKWAY, SUITE 301, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Daniel J Mitchell	director
S. Edward Torres	director	C/O LILLY VENTURES FUND I LLC, 115 W. WASHINGTON ST, STE 1680 SOUTH, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46204
Healthcare Ventures Vii Lp	other: Former 10% Owner	55 CAMBRIDGE PARKWAY, SUITE 301, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
John W Littlechild	other: Former 10% Owner	55 CAMBRIDGE PARKWAY, SUITE 301, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
James H Cavanaugh	other: Former 10% Owner	265 HOTHORPE LANE, VILLANOVA PA 19085
Harold R Werner	other: Former 10% Owner	C/O HEALTHCARE VENTURES LLC, 44 NASSAU STREET, PRINCETON NJ 08542
Christopher Mirabelli	other: Former 10% Owner	55 CAMBRIDGE PARKWAY, SUITE 301, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Healthcare Partners Vii, L.p.	other: Former 10% Owner	44 NASSAU STREET, PRINCETON NJ 08542
J William Freytag	director
Rodell Timothy C Jr	director, officer: CEO & Pres	201 MIDLAND AVE, ASPEN CO 81611
Celgene Corp /de/	10 percent owner	86 MORRIS AVENUE, SUMMIT NJ 07901
Morgenthaler Partners Vii Lp	10 percent owner	50 PUBLIC SQUARE, SUITE 2700, CLEVELAND OH 44113

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