GKOS (Glaukos) Predictability Rank

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What is Glaukos Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Glaukos Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Glaukos Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Devices & Instruments » Glaukos Corp (NYSE:GKOS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

6GJ:Germany

Address

One Glaukos Way, Aliso Viejo, CA, USA, 92656

Website

https://www.glaukos.com

Glaukos Corp is an ophthalmic medical technology company focused on the development and commercialization of breakthrough products and procedures designed to transform the treatment of glaucoma. It offers iStent, a micro-bypass stent for insertion in conjunction with cataract surgery for the reduction of intraocular pressure in adult patients with mild-to-moderate open-angle glaucoma. Its product pipeline also consists of an iStent SA trabecular micro-bypass system, a two-stent product that is slightly wider than the iStent Inject and uses a different auto-injection inserter designed for use in a standalone procedure.

Executives

Joseph E Gilliam	officer: CFO, SVP Corporate Development	C/O GLAUKOS CORPORATION, 229 AVENIDA FABRICANTE, SAN CLEMENTE CA 92677
Gilbert H Kliman	director	C/O INTERWEST PARTNERS, 467 FIRST STREET SUITE 201, LOS ALTOS CA 94022
Marc Stapley	director	9885 TOWNE CENTRE DRIVE, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Aimee S Weisner	director	ONE EDWARDS WAY, IRVINE CA 92614
Alex R. Thurman	officer: SVP & Chief Financial Officer	C/O GLAUKOS CORPORATION, 229 AVENIDA FABRICANTE, SAN CLEMENTE CA 92672
Mark J Foley	director	ZELTIQ AESTHETICS INC., 4698 WILLOW ROAD SUITE 100, PLEASANTON CA 94588
Thomas William Burns	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O GLAUKOS CORPORATION,, 26051 MERIT CIRCLE, SUITE 103, LAGUNA HILLS CA 92653
Tomas Navratil	officer: Chief Development Officer	C/O GLAUKOS CORPORATION, 229 AVENIDA FABRICANTE, SAN CLEMENTE CA 92672
Denice Torres	director	3 RABBIT RUN DRIVE, NEW HOPE PA 18938
Leana Wen	director	C/O GLAUKOS CORPORATION, 229 AVENIDA FABRICANTE, SAN CLEMENTE CA 92672
Chris M. Calcaterra	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	C/O GLAUKOS CORPORATION, 26051 MERIT CIRCLE, SUITE 103, LAGUNA HILLS CA 92653
Link William J Phd	director, 10 percent owner	ONE SANSOME STREET, SUITE 1650, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Orbimed Advisors Llc	director	601 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 54TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Jonathan Silverstein	director	601 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 54TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Richard L Harrison	officer: Treasurer, CFO & Secretary	26051 MERIT CIRCLE, SUITE 103, LAGUNA HILLS CA 92653