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GLDD (Great Lakes Dredge & Dock) Predictability Rank


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What is Great Lakes Dredge & Dock Predictability Rank?

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Great Lakes Dredge & Dock Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Great Lakes Dredge & Dock Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Great Lakes Dredge & Dock Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
9811 Katy Freeway, Suite 1200, Houston, TX, USA, 77024
Great Lakes Dredge & Dock Corp is a provider of dredging services in the United States. The Company is also fully engaged in expanding its core business into the offshore energy industry. Dredging involves the enhancement or preservation of the navigability of waterways or the protection of shorelines through the removal or replenishment of soil, sand, or rock. Company work generally is to performed in coastal waterways and deep water ports. Its project portfolio includes Coastal Restoration, Coastal Protection, Ports and Harbors, International, and Inland Dredging.
Executives
Lawrence R Dickerson director 15415 KATY FREEWAY STE 100, HOUSTON TX 77094
Ronald Steger director 13710 OASIS TERRACE, LAKEWOOD RANCH FL 34202
Kathleen M Shanahan director 24301 WALDEN CENTER DRIVE, BONITA SPRINGS FL 34134
Lasse Petterson director, officer: CEO & President 2103 RESEARCH FOREST DRIVE THE WOODLANDS TX 77380
Ryan Levenson director 2396 DELLWOOD DRIVE, ATLANTA GA 30305
David E Simonelli officer: Chief Operating Officer C/O GREAT LAKES DREDGE & DOCK CORPORATIO 2122 YORK ROAD OAK BROOK IL 60523
Kathleen Mackie Lavoy officer: SVP & Chief Legal Officer C/O GREAT LAKES DREDGE & DOCK CORP. 2122 YORK ROAD OAK BROOK IL 60523
D Michael Steuert director C/O FLUOR CORP, ONE ENTERPRISE DR, ALISO VIEJO CA 92656
Michael Joseph Walsh director C/O GREAT LAKES DREDGE & DOCK CORP 2122 YORK ROAD OAK BROOK IL 60523
Mark W. Marinko officer: Chief Financial Officer C/O GREAT LAKES DREDGE & DOCK CORP., 2122 YORK ROAD, SUITE 200, OAK BROOK IL 60523
Annette W Cyr officer: Chief HR & Admin Officer C/O BRIGHTPOINT., INC. 7635 INTERACTIVE WAY, SUITE 200 INDIANAPOLIS IN 46278
Carl A Albert director C/O BOISE INC., 1111 WEST JEFFERSON STREET, SUITE 200, BOISE ID 83702-5388
Robert B Uhler director C/O GREAT LAKES DREDGE & DOCK CORP. 2122 YORK ROAD, SUITE 200 OAK BROOK IL 60523
Jason Weiss director C/O BOISE INC. 1111 WEST JEFFERSON STREET, SUITE 200 BOISE ID 83702-5388
Christopher P Shea officer: President - E&I Division C/O GREAT LAKES DREDGE & DOCK CORP. 2122 YORK ROAD OAK BROOK IL 60523