Galecto (Galecto) Predictability Rank

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What is Galecto Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Galecto Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Galecto (Galecto) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Galecto Inc (NAS:GLTO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Ole Maaloes Vej 3, Copenhagen, DNK, DK-2200

Website

https://www.galecto.com

Galecto Inc is a clinical-stage biotechnology company developing therapeutics designed to target the biological processes that lie at the heart of fibrosis and impact a broad range of fibrotic and related diseases, including cancer. Its initial focus is on the development of small-molecule inhibitors of galectin-3 and lysyl oxidase-like 2, or LOXL2. Its product candidate GB0139 is for the treatment of severe fibrotic lung diseases such as idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, or IPF, a life-threatening progressive fibrotic disease of the lung. Its product GB1211, a selective oral galectin-3 inhibitor for the treatment of fibrosis-related to non-alcoholic steatohepatitis, or NASH, and GB2064, a selective oral inhibitor of LOXL2 that it initially plans to develop for the treatment of myelofibrosis.

Executives

Orbimed Advisors Llc	director, 10 percent owner	601 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 54TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Bertil Lindmark	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O GALECTO, INC., OLE MAALOES VEJ 3, COPENHAGEN N G7 DK-2200
Hans T. Schambye	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O GALECTO, INC., OLE MAALOES VEJ 3, COPENHAGEN N G7 DK-2200
Stephanie Oestreich	officer: Chief Business Officer	75 STATE STREET, SUITE 100, BOSTON MA 02109
Jonathan Freve	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O SPRING BANK PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 113 CEDAR STREET, STE S-7, MILFORD MA 01757
Garrett Winslow	officer: General Counsel	35 PARKWOOD DRIVE, C/O SPRING BANK PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., HOPKINTON MA 01748
Anne Prener	director	C/O RUBIUS THERAPEUTICS, 399 BINNEY STREET SUITE 300, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Dallas Jayson Donald Alexander	director	AIMMUNE THERAPEUTICS, INC., 8000 MARINA BOULEVARD, SUITE 300, BRISBANE CA 94005
Novo Holdings A/s	10 percent owner	TUBORG HAVNEVEJ 19, HELLERUP G7 2900
Chau Quang Khuong	director, 10 percent owner	C/O ORBIMED ADVISORS, 601 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 54TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Stephan Christgau	director	C/O CASTLE & MORGAN HOLDINGS, INC., 425 MARKET STREET, SUITE 2230, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Soren Moller	director	C/O NOVO HOLDINGS A/S, TUBORG HAVNEVEJ 19, HELLERUP G7 2900
Anders Pedersen	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O GALECTO, INC., OLE MAALOES VEJ 3, COPENHAGEN N G7 DK-2200
Orbimed Advisors Israel Ii Ltd	director, 10 percent owner	601 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 54TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Orbimed Israel Gp Ii, L.p.	director, 10 percent owner	601 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 54TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022