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Gabelli Global Utility &ome Trust (Gabelli Global Utility &ome Trust) Predictability Rank


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What is Gabelli Global Utility &ome Trust Predictability Rank?

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Gabelli Global Utility &ome Trust Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Gabelli Global Utility &ome Trust Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Gabelli Global Utility &ome Trust (Gabelli Global Utility &ome Trust) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » Gabelli Global Utility & Income Trust (AMEX:GLU) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
PGP JEQ PNI DTF JHAA JPT NXC VGI ERH GECC BLK BX OSTO:INVE A TSX:BN KKR APO BK AMP XSWX:PGHN LSE:III
Traded in Other Exchanges
GLU.PRB.PFD:USA GLU.PRA.PFD:USA
Address
One Corporate Center, Rye, NY, USA, 10580-1422
Website
https://www.gabelli.com
Gabelli Global Utility & Income Trust is a non-diversified, closed-end management investment company. The Fund's objective is to seek a consistent level of after-tax total return. It primarily invests in stocks of companies involved to a substantial extent in providing products, services, or equipment for the generation or distribution of electricity, gas, or water and infrastructure operations, and in equity securities including preferred securities of companies in other industries, in each case in such securities that are expected to pay periodic dividends.
Executives
Mario J Gabelli officer: Chairman and CIO 191 MASON STREET, GREENWICH CT 06830
Kuni Nakamura director 1 MARTIN BUTLER COURT, RYE NY 10580
Calgary Avansino director C/O GAMCO INVESTORS, INC., ONE CORPORATE CENTER, RYE NY 10580
Peter D. Goldstein officer: Secretary 249 ROYAL PALM WAY, SUITE 503, PALM BEACH FL 33480
James P Conn director
Leslie Fahrenkopf Foley director C/O GAMCO INVESTORS, INC., ONE CORPORATE CENTER, RYE NY 10580
John Chester Ball officer: Treasurer 800 CONNECTICUT AVENUE, NORWALK CT 06854
Agnes Mullady officer: Treasurer ONE CORPORATE CENTER, RYE NY 10580
Bruce N Alpert officer: President C/O GAMCO INVESTORS, INC., ONE CORPORATE CENTER, RYE NY 10580
Urso Mario D director 65 EATON SQUARE, LONDON SW UK X0 041101225
Anthony J Colavita director ONE CORPORATE CENTER, RYE NY 10580
Salvatore M Salibello director ONE CORPORATE CENTER, RYE NY 10580
James E Mckee officer: Secretary C/O GABELLI ASSET MANAGEMENT INC, ONE CORPORATE CENTER, RYE NY 16580
Vincent D Enright director ONE CORPORATE CENTER, RYE NY 10580
Karl Otto Pohl director ONE CORPORATE CENTER, RYE NY 10580

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