GRTSQ (Gritstone Bio) Predictability Rank

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What is Gritstone Bio Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Gritstone Bio Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Gritstone Bio Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Gritstone Bio Inc (OTCPK:GRTSQ) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

5959 Horton Street, Suite 300, Emeryville, CA, USA, 94608

Website

https://gritstonebio.com

Gritstone Bio Inc is a biotechnology company. The company is engaged in developing personalized cancer immunotherapies to fight multiple cancer types and infectious diseases. It is building a pipeline of Immunotherapies product candidates for patients with solid tumors, which includes GRANITE, SLATE, and CORAL, among others.

Executives

Andrew R Allen	director, officer: President and CEO	2525 28TH STREET, SUITE 200, BOULDER CO 80301
Matthew Hawryluk	officer: See Remarks	C/O GRITSTONE ONCOLOGY, INC., 5858 HORTON STREET, SUITE 210, EMERYVILLE CA 94608
Erin Jones	officer: See Remarks	C/O GRITSTONE ONCOLOGY, INC., 5858 HORTON STREET, SUITE 210, EMERYVILLE CA 94608
Vassiliki Economides	officer: See Remarks	C/O KEZAR LIFE SCIENCES, INC., 4000 SHORELINE COURT, SUITE 300, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Karin Jooss	officer: See Remarks	C/O GRITSTONE ONCOLOGY, INC., 5858 HORTON STREET, SUITE 210, EMERYVILLE CA 94608
Lawrence Corey	director	C/O GRITSTONE BIO, INC., 5959 HORTON STREET, SUITE 300, EMERYVILLE CA 94608
Naiyer Rizvi	director	C/O ARMO BIOSCIENCES, INC., 575 CHESAPEAKE DRIVE, REDWOOD CITY CA 94063
Elaine V Jones	director	C/O TARGACEPT, INC., 200 EAST FIRST STREET, SUITE 300, WINSTON-SALEM NC 27101
Clare Fisher	director	C/O GRITSTONE ONCOLOGY, INC., 5959 HORTON STREET, SUITE 300, EMERYVILLE CA 94608
Steve E. Krognes	director	863 MITTEN ROAD, SUITE 102, BURLINGAME CA 94010
Shefali Agarwal	director	C/O EPIZYME, INC., 400 TECHNOLOGY SQUARE, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
James Cho	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O GRITSTONE ONCOLOGY, INC., 5959 HORTON STREET, SUITE 300, EMERYVILLE CA 94608
Raphael Rousseau	officer: See Remarks	C/O GRITSTONE ONCOLOGY, INC., 5858 HORTON STREET, SUITE 210, EMERYVILLE CA 94608
Roman Yelensky	officer: See Remarks	C/O GRITSTONE ONCOLOGY, INC., 5858 HORTON STREET, SUITE 210, EMERYVILLE CA 94608
Thomas Woiwode	director	ONE SANSOME STREET, SUITE 1650, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104