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S.A.I. Leisure Group Co (HKSE:01832) Predictability Rank


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What is S.A.I. Leisure Group Co Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

S.A.I. Leisure Group Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

S.A.I. Leisure Group Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

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S.A.I. Leisure Group Co (HKSE:01832) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Travel & Leisure » S.A.I. Leisure Group Co Ltd (HKSE:01832) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
HKSE:00253 HKSE:00042 HKSE:01215 HKSE:00559 HKSE:00022 HKSE:00181 HKSE:01355 HKSE:01189 HKSE:00193 HKSE:00219 MAR HLT HTHT LSE:IHG H XPAR:AC LSE:WTB BOM:500850 WH CHH
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
57 Hung To Road, 5th Floor, Nanyang Plaza, Kwun Tong, Kowloon, Hong Kong, HKG
Website
http://www.saileisuregroup.com
S.A.I. Leisure Group Co Ltd operates as a tourism group in the tropical islands of Saipan and Guam. The company's portfolio includes hotels and resorts in Saipan and Guam catering to a wide range of recreational needs. It also provides full-range hospitality services, including food and beverage, meetings, banquets and much more. It also runs souvenir and amenities stores, offers booking services for third-party operated activities and tours, and work with tour operators to provide destination-based concierge and travel management services to their guests. The company three reportable segments are Hotels and resorts; Luxury travel retail; and Destination services.
Executives
Tan Henry 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Leap Forward Limited 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Supreme Success Limited 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Tan Holdings Corporation 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Thc Leisure Holdings Limited 2101 Beneficial owner
Tan Siu Lin 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you

S.A.I. Leisure Group Co (HKSE:01832) Headlines

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