Weihai City Commercial Bank Co (HKSE:09677) Predictability Rank

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What is Weihai City Commercial Bank Co Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Weihai City Commercial Bank Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Weihai City Commercial Bank Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Weihai City Commercial Bank Co Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Weihai City Commercial Bank Co Ltd (HKSE:09677) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

No. 9 Baoquan Road, Finance Building, Shandong Province, Weihai, CHN, 264200

Website

https://www.whccb.com

Weihai City Commercial Bank Co Ltd offers banking services. The group's principal businesses include corporate banking, retail banking, financial market business, and others. It generates maximum revenue from the corporate banking segment. The Corporate banking segment represents the provision of a range of financial products and services to corporations, government agencies, and financial institutions. Its products and services include corporate loans and advances, trade financing, deposit-taking activities, agency services, wealth management services, consulting and advisory services, remittance and settlement services, guarantee services, and finance leasing services.

Executives

Teda Investment Holding Co., Ltd.	2101 Beneficial owner
Jin Lian Ji Tuan You Xian Gong Si	2101 Beneficial owner
Tian Jin Bo Hai Guo You Zi Chan Jing Ying Guan Li You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Tian Jin Tai Da Shi Ye Ji Tuan You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Trafigura Pte Ltd	2101 Beneficial owner
Global Miles International Holdings Limited	2101 Beneficial owner
He Ze Cheng Tou Kong Gu Ji Tuan You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Heze City Investment Holdings Hong Kong International Co.,limited	2101 Beneficial owner
Liu Zhiming	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Shan Dong Tong Da Jin Rong Zu Lin You Xian Gong Si	2106 Person having a security interest in shares
Shan Dong Zhao Jin Ji Tuan You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Zhao Jin Kuang Ye Gu Fen You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Shan Dong Zhao Jin Ji Tuan Cai Wu You Xian Gong Si	2101 Beneficial owner
China Hongqiao Group Limited	2101 Beneficial owner
Ji Nan Li Cheng Kong Gu Ji Tuan You Xian Gong Si	2101 Beneficial owner

Weihai City Commercial Bank Co Headlines

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