GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » National Healthcare Properties Inc (OTCPK:HLTC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

HLTC (National Healthcare Properties) Predictability Rank


View and export this data going back to 2020. Start your Free Trial

What is National Healthcare Properties Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

National Healthcare Properties Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

National Healthcare Properties Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of National Healthcare Properties's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

National Healthcare Properties Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » National Healthcare Properties Inc (OTCPK:HLTC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
STRW NHHS CHTH CHCT UHT GMRE DHC WELL VTR DOC OHI HR CTRE AHR SBRA TSX:CSH.UN NHI XBRU:AED MPW XBRU:COFB
Traded in Other Exchanges
NHPAP.PFD:USA
Address
540 Madison Avenue, 27th Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10022
Website
https://www.nhpreit.com
National Healthcare Properties Inc is a publicly registered real estate investment trust focused on acquiring a diversified portfolio of healthcare real estate, with an emphasis on seniors housing operating properties (SHOP) and outpatient medical facilities (OMF), located in the United States. The company has SHOPs and OMFs as two reportable business segments for management and internal financial reporting purposes. OMF consists of physicians' offices and examination rooms, hospitals, pharmacies, other facilities. SHOP consist of assisted living facilities, memory care facilities, Independent Living facilities. Majority of revenue is from OMFs segment.
Executives
Scott M. Lappetito officer: CFO, Secretary and Treasurer 650 FIFTH AVENUE, 30TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Jason F. Doyle officer: CFO, Secretary and Treasurer 650 FIFTH AVENUE, 30TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Buddie J Penn director 405 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Lee M Elman director 405 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Katie P Kurtz officer: CFO, Treasurer and Secretary 405 PARK AVENUE, THIRD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Edward G Rendell director 405 PARK AVENUE, 15TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Leslie D Michelson director PRIVATE HEALTH MANAGEMENT, 9200 SUNSET BLVD, SUITE 110, LOS ANGELES CA 90069
Randolph C Read director, other: CHAIRMAN C/O NEW YORK REIT, INC., 405 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Thomas P Darcy officer: Chief Executive Officer 405 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Lange Edward F Jr officer: See Remarks 405 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
William Todd Jensen officer: See Remarks 405 PARK AVE., 15TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Elizabeth K. Tuppeny director C/O AMERICAN REALTY CAPITAL PROPERTIES, 405 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Robert J Froehlich director 405 PARK AVENUE, 15TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
David Gong director C/O AMERICAN REALTY CAPITAL PROPERTIES, 405 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Nicholas S Schorsch director, officer: See Remarks

National Healthcare Properties Headlines

No Headlines