HLVX (HilleVax) Predictability Rank

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What is HilleVax Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

HilleVax Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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HilleVax Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » HilleVax Inc (NAS:HLVX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

321 Harrison Avenue, Boston, MA, USA, 02118

Website

https://www.hillevax.com

HilleVax Inc is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company. The company is focused on developing and commercializing novel vaccines. The firm's initial program, HIL-214, is a virus-like particle (VLP) based vaccine candidate for the prevention of moderate-to-severe acute gastroenteritis (AGE) caused by norovirus infection.

Executives

Robert Hershberg	director, officer: President and CEO	3005 FIRST AVENUE, SEATTLE WA 98121
Shane Maltbie	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O AXCELLA HEALTH INC., 840 MEMORIAL DRIVE, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Aditya Kohli	director, officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O PHATHOM PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 2150 E. LAKE COOK ROAD, SUITE 800, BUFFALO GROVE IL 60089
Frazier Life Sciences X, L.p.	10 percent owner	601 UNION STREET, SUITE 3200, TWO UNION SQUARE, SEATTLE WA 98101
Astrid Borkowski	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O HILLEVAX, INC., 75 STATE STREET, SUITE 100 - #9995, BOSTON MA 02109
Nanette Cocero	director	C/O HILLEVAX, INC., 75 STATE STREET, SUITE 100, BOSTON MA 02109
Fhmls X, L.l.c.	10 percent owner	601 UNION STREET, SUITE 3200, TWO UNION SQUARE, SEATTLE WA 98101
Gary Dubin	director	C/O HILLEVAX, INC., 75 STATE STREET, SUITE 100 - #9995, BOSTON MA 02109
Jaime Sepulveda	director	C/O HILLEVAX INC., 75 STATE STREET 100 - #9995, BOSTON MA 02109
Takeda Vaccines, Inc.	10 percent owner	75 SIDNEY STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Shelley Chu	director	ONE WINTHROP SQUARE, SUITE 400, BOSTON MA 02110
Susan Michele Silbermann	director	C/O LIANBIO, 103 CARNEGIE CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 215, PRINCETON NJ 08540
Fhmls X, L.p.	10 percent owner	601 UNION STREET, SUITE 3200, TWO UNION SQUARE, SEATTLE WA 98101
Julie L. Gerberding	director	2000 GALLOPING HILL ROAD, KENILWORTH NJ 07033
David A Socks	officer: CFO & Chief Business Officer	C/O CADENCE PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 12481 HIGH BLUFF DRIVE, SUITE 200, SAN DIEGO CA 92130