HUMA (Humacyte) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2021. Start your Free Trial

What is Humacyte Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Humacyte Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Humacyte Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Humacyte's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Humacyte Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Humacyte Inc (NAS:HUMA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

2525 East North Carolina Highway 54, Durham, NC, USA, 27713

Website

https://www.humacyte.com

Humacyte Inc is developing a disruptive biotechnology platform to deliver universally implantable bioengineered human tissues and organs designed to improve the lives of patients and transform the practice of medicine. It develops and manufactures acellular tissues to treat a wide range of diseases, injuries, and chronic conditions. Company's pipeline includes Vascular Trauma, PAD, Dailysis, Acellular Tissue Engineered Vessels, Advanced Organ Systems, Advanced Tissue Constructs.

Executives

William John Scheessele	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	620 WADE AVENUE, UNIT 501, RALEIGH NC 27605
Dale A. Sander	officer: CFO & CCDO	11304 EMPIRE LAKES DRIVE, RALEIGH NC 27617
Shamik J Parikh	officer: Chief Medical Officer	1160 HEDGEROW DRIVE, GARNET VALLEY PA 19060
Charles Bruce Green	director	3185 SCENIC DRIVE, NAPA CA 94558
Kathleen Sebelius	director	C/O DERMIRA, INC., 275 MIDDLEFIELD ROAD, SUITE 150, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Michael T. Constantino	director	C/O 9 METERS BIOPHARMA, INC., 8480 HONEYCUTT ROAD, SUITE 120, RALEIGH NC 27615
Brady W Dougan	director, 10 percent owner	35 WILSHIRE ROAD, GREENWICH CT 06831
Laura E Niklason	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President, CEO and Director	35 WILSHIRE ROAD, GREENWICH CT 06831
Heather Ledbetter Prichard	officer: Chief Operating Officer	820 BROWNWICH STREET, WAKE FOREST NC 27587
Max N. Wallace	director	210 WEST TRYON STREET, HILLSBOROUGH NC 27278
Gordon M Binder	director	225 S. LAKE AVE., SUITE 300, PASADENA CA 91101
Ayabudge Llc	10 percent owner	35 WILSHIRE ROAD, GREENWICH CT 06831
Yang Cao	officer: Chief Regulatory Officer	12 DOGLEG LANE, LAWRENCE NJ 08648
Diane Seimetz	director	JUTASTRASSE, MUNICH 2M 80636
Rajiv Shukla	director	EMERALD VIEW SUITE 400, 2054 VISTA PARKWAY, WEST PALM BEACH FL 33411