Intrepid Potash (Intrepid Potash) Predictability Rank

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What is Intrepid Potash Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Intrepid Potash Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Intrepid Potash (Intrepid Potash) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Agriculture » Intrepid Potash Inc (NYSE:IPI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

58I1:Germany

Address

707 17th Street, Suite 4200, Denver, CO, USA, 80202

Website

https://www.intrepidpotash.com

Intrepid Potash Inc produces and sells potash and potash byproducts in three main product segments: Potash, Trio, and Oilfield solutions. The Potash segment produces and sells potash to the agricultural industry as a fertilizer input, the industrial market as a component of oil and gas drilling fluid, and the animal feed market as a nutrient supplement. The Trio segment produces and sells specialty fertilizer that consists of potassium, sulfate, and magnesium, and is mined from langbeinite ore. The oilfield solutions segment offers water, high-speed potassium chloride mixing services, salt water disposal services, and trucking services. The vast majority of revenue is generated in the United States, which is also the location of the firm's production facilities.

Executives

Jornayvaz Robert P Iii	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman/CEO	1001 17TH STREET, SUITE 1050, DENVER CO 80202
Christina Sheehan	officer: General Counsel	707 17TH STREET, SUITE 4200, DENVER CO 80202
Matthew D Preston	officer: VP of Finance	C/O INTREPID POTASH, INC., 1001 17TH STREET, SUITE 1050, DENVER CO 80202
William M Zisch	director	C/O INTREPID POTASH, INC., 707 17TH STREET, SUITE 4200, DENVER CO 80202
Mary E Mcbride	director	6199 E. PRINCETON CIRCLE, ENGLEWOOD CO 80111
Clearway Capital Management Llc	10 percent owner	501 BRICKELL KEY DRIVE SUITE 602, MIAMI FL 33131
Robert E Baldridge	officer: SVP - New Mexico	C/O INTREPID POTASH, INC., 1001 17TH STREET, SUITE 1050, DENVER CO 80202
Edward Brian Stone	officer: President and COO	C/O INTREPID POTASH, INC., 1001 17TH STREET, SUITE 1050, DENVER CO 80202
Kyle R Smith	officer: VP, General Counsel	C/O INTREPID POTASH, INC., 1001 17TH STREET, SUITE 1050, DENVER CO 80202
Lori A Lancaster	director	302 WEST 86TH STREET. APT. 4C, NEW YORK NY 10024
Wells Stanley W Ii	officer: Vice President Human Resources	1001 17TH ST, SUITE 1050, DENVER CO 80202
Teton Trust Co Llc As Trustee Of Clearway Trust	10 percent owner	36 E. BROADWAY, SUITE 9-3 PO BOX 490, JACKSON WY 83001
Erica Wyatt	officer: Chief Human Resources Officer	C/O INTREPID POTASH, INC., 1001 17TH STREET, SUITE 1050, DENVER CO 80202
Terry Considine	director	4582 SOUTH ULSTER STREET PARKWAY, SUITE 1100, DENVER CO 80237
Clearway Capital Management Ltd.	10 percent owner	501 BRICKELL KEY DRIVE SUITE 602, MIAMI FL 33131