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IRAA (Iris Acquisition) Predictability Rank


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What is Iris Acquisition Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Iris Acquisition Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Iris Acquisition Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Iris Acquisition Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Diversified Financial Services » Iris Acquisition Corp (OTCPK:IRAA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
WNNR KRNL NSTD ROSS ESHA TLGY PACI NSTC MBAC PLMI PBAJ SVMB SCRM CVII AAC GHIX ALCC AACT DWAC SAGA
Traded in Other Exchanges
IRAAU:USA
Address
122 Mary Street, P.O. Box 10085, 3rd Floor Zephyr House, George Town, Grand Cayman, CYM, KY1-1001
Website
https://www.tribecap.co
Iris Acquisition Corp is a blank check company.
Executives
Manish C. Shah director 1115 BROADWAY, TENTH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10010
Lisha Parmar officer: Chief Financial Officer UNIT 1611 INDEX TOWER DIFC, PO BOX 941641, DUBAI C0 00000
Omkar Halady officer: Vice President UNIT 1611 INDEX TOWER DIFC, PO BOX 941641, DUBAI C0 00000
Duriya M Farooqui director C/O INTERCONTINENTAL EXCHANGE, INC., 5660 NEW NORTHSIDE DRIVE, ATLANTA GA 30328
Richard N. Peretz director 55 GLENLAKE PARKWAY, NE, ATLANTA GA 30328
Henry S. Ward director C/O FISKER INC., 1580 FRANCISCO STREET, SUITE B, TORRANCE CA 90501
Tribe Arrow Holdings I Llc 10 percent owner 2700 19TH ST, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94110
Rohit Nanani director 2700 19TH STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94110
Ted Maidenberg officer: Secretary 2700 19TH STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94110
Sumit Mehta officer: Vice President 2700 19TH STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94110
Arjun Sethi director, officer: Chairman & CEO 2700 19TH STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94110
Omar Chohan officer: Chief Financial Officer 2700 19TH STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94110