What is PGIM High Yield Fund Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
PGIM High Yield Fund Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
PGIM High Yield Fund (PGIM High Yield Fund) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
655 Broad Street, 6th Floor, Newark, NJ, USA, 07102
PGIM High Yield Fund Inc is a diversified, closed-end management investment company, active in the financial services domain. The Fund's investment objective is to provide a high level of current income. It invests at least 80% of its investable assets in a diversified portfolio of high-yield fixed-income instruments that are rated below investment grade with varying maturities and other investments.
Executives
| Brian Reid |
director |
C/O PGIM INVESTMENTS LLC, 655 BROAD STREET, NEWARK NJ 07102 |
| Andrew Donohue |
officer: Chief Compliance Officer |
655 BROAD STREET, NEWARK NJ 07102 |
| Brian J Lalli |
other: Portfolio Manager |
655 BROAD STREET, NEWARK NJ 07102 |
| Robert Mccormack |
officer: Assistant Treasurer |
655 BROAD ST., NEWARK NJ 07102 |
| Barry H Evans |
director |
C/O PGIM INVESTMENTS, 655 BROAD STREET, NEWARK NJ 07102 |
| Isabelle Sajous |
officer: Chief Compliance Officer |
655 BROAD ST., NEWARK NJ 07102 |
| Michael Joseph Gormally |
other: Portfolio Manager |
655 BROAD STREET, NEWARK NJ 07102 |
| Gregory J Peters |
other: Co-Chief Investment Officer |
655 BROAD STREET, NEWARK NJ 07102 |
| Craig C Dewling |
other: Deputy CIO |
655 BROAD STREET, NEWARK NJ 07102 |
| Michael Lillard |
other: Portfolio Manager |
655 BROAD STREET, NEWARK NJ 07102 |
| Debra Rubano |
officer: Assistant Secretary |
655 BROAD STREET, PRUDENTIAL TOWER SOUTH, NEWARK NJ 07102 |
| Patrick Mcguinness |
officer: Assistant Secretary |
655 BROAD STREET, PRUDENTIAL TOWER SOUTH, 17TH FLOOR, NEWARK NJ 07102 |
| Scott E Benjamin |
director |
655 BROAD ST., NEWARK NJ 07102 |
| Melissa Gonzalez |
officer: Assistant Secretary |
655 BROAD STREET, NEWARK NJ 07102 |
| Elyse Mclaughlin |
officer: Assistant Treasurer |
655 BROAD ST., NEWARK NJ 07102 |
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