KREF (KKR Real Estate Finance Trust) Predictability Rank

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What is KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Predictability Rank Related Terms

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KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc (NYSE:KREF) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

BRSP RWT ORC TRTX RC NYMT CMTG IVR CIM FBRT NLY AGNC STWD RITM BXMT ABR LADR TWO ARR ARI

Traded in Other Exchanges

KREFpA.PFD:USA 8KR:Germany

Address

30 Hudson Yards, Suite 7500, New York, NY, USA, 10001

Website

https://www.kkrreit.com

KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc is a real estate finance company that focuses on originating and acquiring senior mortgage loans secured by CRE assets. The investment is to originate or acquire senior mortgage loans collateralized by institutional-quality CRE assets that are owned and operated by experienced and well-capitalized sponsors and located in liquid markets with underlying fundamentals. KKR manages investments across multiple asset classes, including private equity, real estates, energy, infrastructure, credit, and hedge funds. The company's investment objective is capital preservation and generating attractive risk-adjusted returns for its stockholders over the long term, through dividends.

Executives

W Patrick Mattson	officer: Chief Operating Off. and Secr	C/O KOHLBERG KRAVIS ROBERTS & CO. L.P., 30 HUDSON YARDS, NEW YORK NY 10001
Matthew A Salem	officer: Co-CEO and Co-President	C/O KOHLBERG KRAVIS ROBERTS & CO. L.P., 30 HUDSON YARDS, NEW YORK NY 10001
Lee Christen E.j.	officer: Co-CEO and Co-President	C/O KOHLBERG KRAVIS ROBERTS & CO. L.P., 30 HUDSON YARDS, NEW YORK NY 10001
Kkr Group Co. Inc.	10 percent owner	30 HUDSON YARDS, NEW YORK NY 10001
Kkr Group Partnership L.p.	10 percent owner	C/O KOHLBERG KRAVIS ROBERTS & CO. L.P., 30 HUDSON YARDS, NEW YORK NY 10001
Kkr Reft Holdings L.p.	10 percent owner	C/O KOHLBERG KRAVIS ROBERTS & CO. L.P., 30 HUDSON YARDS, NEW YORK NY 10001
Kendra Decious	officer: CFO and Treasurer	C/O KKR REAL ESTATE FINANCE TRUST INC., 30 HUDSON YARDS, SUITE 7500, NEW YORK NY 10001
Vincent J. Napolitano	officer: General Counsel and Secretary	C/O KKR REAL ESTATE FINANCE TRUST INC., 30 HUDSON YARDS, SUITE 7500, NEW YORK NY 10001
Tactical Value Spn-kref Holdings L.p.	10 percent owner	C/O KOHLBERG KRAVIS ROBERTS & CO. L.P., 9 WEST 57TH STREET, SUITE 4200, NEW YORK NY 10019
Makena U.s. Real Estate Master Fund B, L.p.	10 percent owner	2755 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 200, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Kkr Management Holdings L.p.	10 percent owner	9 WEST 57TH STREET 41ST FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Irene M Esteves	director	C/O TIME WARNER CABLE INC., 60 COLUMBUS CIRCLE, 17TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10023
Paula Madoff	director	C/O KKR REAL ESTATE FINANCE TRUST INC., 9 WEST 57TH STREET, SUITE 4200, NEW YORK NY 10019
Mostafa Nagaty	officer: CFO and Treasurer	C/O KKR REAL ESTATE FINANCE TRUST INC., 9 WEST 57TH STREET, SUITE 4200, NEW YORK NY 10019
Jonathan A Langer	director	C/O GOLDMAN, SACHS & CO., 85 BROAD STREET, NEW YORK NY 10004