LNN (Lindsay) Predictability Rank

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What is Lindsay Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Lindsay Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Lindsay Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Lindsay Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery » Lindsay Corp (NYSE:LNN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

LMF:Germany LMF:Germany

Address

18135 Burke Street, Suite 100, Omaha, NE, USA, 68022

Website

https://www.lindsay.com

Lindsay Corp provides various proprietary water management and road infrastructure products and services. It has operations categorized into two main reporting segments: Irrigation, and Infrastructure. The company generates maximum revenue from the Irrigation segment. Its Irrigation segment includes manufacturing and marketing center pivot, lateral move, and hose reel irrigation systems, as well as various technology solutions such as GPS positioning and guidance, variable rate irrigation, wireless irrigation management, M2M communication technology, and smartphone applications. Geographically, it derives a majority of its revenue from the United States.

Executives

Brian L Ketcham	officer: Vice President and CFO	2222 N 111TH STREET, OMAHA NE 68164
Si Pablo Di	director	18135 BURKE ST., SUITE 100, OMAHA NE 68022
James Scott Marion	officer: President - Infrastructure Div	2222 NORTH 111TH ST, OMAHA NE 68164
Michael Nahl	director	2707 N 108TH STREET 102, C/O LINDSAY INTERNATIONAL, OMAHA NE 68164
Ibrahim Gokcen	director	18135 BURKE ST., SUITE 100, OMAHA NE 68022
Michael Christodolou	director	2707 N 108TH STREET 102, C/O LINDSAY INTERNATIONAL, OMAHA NE 68164
Gustavo E Oberto	officer: President - Irrigation	18135 BURKE ST., SUITE 100, OMAHA NE 68022
Michael D Walter	director	ONE CONAGRA DRIVE, OMAHA NE 68102
Randy A Wood	officer: Pres - Agricultural Irrigation	2222 N 111TH STREET, OMAHA NE 68164
Mary A Lindsey	director	6565 N. MACARTHUR BLVD., SUITE 800, IRVING TX 75039
Bill Welsh	director	2707 N 108TH STREET 102, C/O LINDSAY INTERNATIONAL, OMAHA NE 68164
Madere Consuelo E.	director	800 N. LINDBERGH BLVD., ST. LOUIS MO 63167
David B Downing	officer: Vice President & CFO	2707 N. 108TH ST., SUITE 102, OMAHA NE 68164
Timothy L Hassinger	director, officer: President and CEO	2222 NORTH 111TH ST, OMAHA NE 68164
Rick Parod	officer: President & CEO	2707 N 108TH STREET STE102, OMAHA NE 68164