MEI Pharma (MEI Pharma) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2003. Start your Free Trial

What is MEI Pharma Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

MEI Pharma Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

MEI Pharma Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of MEI Pharma's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

MEI Pharma (MEI Pharma) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » MEI Pharma Inc (NAS:MEIP) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

0JW9:UK

Address

11455 El Camino Real, Suite 250, San Diego, CA, USA, 92130

Website

https://www.meipharma.com

MEI Pharma Inc is focused on the clinical development of novel therapies for cancer. The company's clinical drug candidate includes Pracinostat, an orally available histone deacetylase inhibitor for the treatment of patients with acute myeloid leukemia and myelodysplastic syndrome. Its clinical development portfolio also includes Zandelisib, an oral inhibitor of phosphatidylinositide 3-kinase delta for the treatment of patients with recurrent chronic lymphocytic leukemia or follicular non-Hodgkin's lymphoma; and ME-344, an isoflavone-based mitochondrial inhibitor for the treatment of HER2-negative breast cancer and Pracinostat, an oral histone deacetylase inhibitor. Geographically, all the business activities function through the region of the United States.

Executives

Taheer Datoo	director	181 BAY STREET, SUITE 4200, TORONTO A6 M5J 2T3
James P Flynn	director	41 HARRIS CT, DANVILLE CA 94526
Sujay Kango	director	1028 CHAMBERS COURT, BRIDGEWATER NJ 08807
Richard G Ghalie	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O FAVRILLE, INC, 10445 PACIFIC CENTER COURT, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Bruce Ross Winson	10 percent owner	5950 BERKSHIRE LANE, SUITE 510, DALLAS TX 75225
Anson Funds Management Lp	10 percent owner	16000 DALLAS PARKWAY, SUITE 800, DALLAS TX 75248
Anson Management Gp Llc	10 percent owner	16000 DALLAS PARKWAY, SUITE 800, DALLAS TX 75248
Anson Advisors Inc.	10 percent owner	155 UNIVERSITY AVENUE, SUITE 207, TORONTO A6 M5H 3B7
Funicular Funds, Lp	10 percent owner	2261 MARKET STREET, #4307, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94114
Amin Nathoo	10 percent owner	155 UNIVERSITY AVENUE, SUITE 207, TORONTO Z4 M5H 3B7
Moez Kassam	10 percent owner	111 PETER STREET, SUITE 904, TORONTO A6 M5V2H1
Justin J. File	officer: CFO and Corporate Secretary	C/O EVOFEM BIOSCIENCES, INC., 12400 HIGH BLUFF DRIVE, SUITE 600, SAN DIEGO CA 92130
Jacob Ma-weaver	10 percent owner	2261 MARKET STREET, #4307, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94114
Cable Car Capital Llc	10 percent owner	2261 MARKET STREET #4307, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94114
Baltic Charles V. Iii	director	C/O MARSHALL EDWARDS, INC., 11975 EL CAMINO REAL, SUITE 101, SAN DIEGO CA 92130