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MFS Special Value Trust (MFS Special Value Trust) Predictability Rank


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What is MFS Special Value Trust Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

MFS Special Value Trust Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

MFS Special Value Trust Predictability Rank Related Terms

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MFS Special Value Trust (MFS Special Value Trust) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » MFS Special Value Trust (NYSE:MFV) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
PYN PIAC CIF CWD GRF TETAA RAND ENDI CUBA NOM BLK BX OSTO:INVE A TSX:BN KKR APO BK AMP XSWX:PGHN LSE:III
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
111 Huntington Avenue, Boston, MA, USA, 02199
Website
https://www.mfs.com
MFS Special Value Trust is a diversified closed-end management investment company. Its investment objective is to seek high current income but may also consider capital appreciation. The majority of the fund's assets are invested in debt instruments, including below-investment-grade quality debt instruments. In addition, a portion of the fund's assets is invested in equity securities. Its portfolio of investments comprises investments in different sectors such as aerospace, broadcasting, business services, conglomerates, banks, insurance, and other sectors.
Executives
Linda Dougherty other: OFFICER OF ADVISOR 111 HUNTINGTON AVENUE, BOSTON MA 02199
Rosa Licea-mailloux other: CHIEF COMPLIANCE OFFICER 111 HUNTINGTON AVENUE, BOSTON MA 02199
Robert J Manning director 1201 THIRD AVE, STE 4900, SEATTLE WA 98101
Manjit Singh director 111 HUNTINGTON AVENUE, BOSTON MA 02072
Jacques Jr Goulet other: OFFICER OF ADVISOR 111 HUNTINGTON AVENUE, BOSTON MA 02199
Melissa Kennedy other: OFFICER OF ADVISOR 111 HUNTINGTON AVENUE, BOSTON MA 02199
Katherine Cannan other: PORTFOLIO MANAGER 111 HUNTINGTON AVENUE, BOSTON MA 02199
James W. Kilman director 111 HUNTINGTON AVENUE, BOSTON MA 02199
Edward M. Maloney officer: Officer of Advisor 111 HUNTINGTON AVENUE, BOSTON MA 02199
Peter Darrell Jones director 111 HUNTINGTON AVENUE, BOSTON MA 02199
Michael Skatrud other: Portfolio Manager MFS INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, 111 HUNTINGTON AVENUE, BOSTON MA 01760
Carol W. Geremia officer: PRESIDENT 111 HUNTINGTON AVENUE, BOSTON MA 02199
Kevin D Strain other: Officer of Advisor MFS INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, 111 HUNTINGTON AVENUE, BOSTON MA 02199
Clarence Jr Otis director 1095 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036
John A Caroselli director ONE METROTECH CENTER, BROOKLYN NY 11201

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