3M Co (MMM) Predictability Rank

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What is 3M Co Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

3M Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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3M Co Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Conglomerates » 3M Co (NYSE:MMM) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

MMM:Mexico 1MMM:Italy MMMd:UK MMM:Germany MMM:Germany MMM:Germany MMM:Germany MMM:Switzerland MMMM:Canada MMMC34:Brazil MMM:Austria MMM:Argentina

Address

3M Center, St. Paul, MN, USA, 55144

Website

https://www.3m.com

3M, a multinational conglomerate founded in 1902, sells tens of thousands of products ranging from sponges to respirators. The firm is well known for its extensive research and development capabilities, and it is a pioneer in inventing new use cases for its proprietary technologies. 3M is organized across three business segments: safety and industrial (representing around 44% of revenue), transportation and electronics (36%), and consumer (20%). The firm recently spun off its healthcare business, now known as Solventum. Nearly half of 3M's revenue comes from outside the Americas.

Executives

Theresa E Reinseth	officer: Vice President/CAO	3M COMPANY OFFICE OF GENERAL COUNSEL, 3M CENTER, ST PAUL MN 55144-1000
Michael F Roman	officer: Senior Vice President	3M COMPANY OFFICE OF GENERAL COUNSEL, 3M CENTER, ST. PAUL MN 55144-1000
Chavez Rodriguez Beatriz Karina	officer: Senior Vice President	3M COMPANY, 3M CENTER BLDG 220-09-E-02, ST. PAUL MN 55144-1000
Thomas W Sweet	director	ONE DELL WAY, ROUND ROCK TX 78682
Bryan C Hanson	officer: Group Pres & CEO Health Care	ZIMMER BIOMET HOLDINGS, 345 E. MAIN STREET, WARSAW IN 46580
Audrey Choi	director	3M COMPANY, 3M CENTER, BUILDING 220-9E-02, ST. PAUL MN 55144-1000
Eric D. Hammes	officer: VP, Corp Controller & CAO	3M COMPANY OFFICE OF GENERAL COUNSEL, 3M CENTER, ST. PAUL MN 55144-1000
Goralski Christian T Jr	officer: Group President	3M COMPANY, 3M CENTER, BUILDING 220-9E-02, ST. PAUL MN 55144-1000
Pedro Pizarro	director	2244 WALNUT GROVE AVENUE, ROSEMEAD CA 91770
Anne H Chow	director	2200 WEST PARKWAY BLVD., SALT LAKE CITY UT 84119
Kevin H Rhodes	officer: EVP & Chief Legal Officer	3M COMPANY, 3M CENTER, BLDG 220-09-E-02, ST. PAUL MN 55144-1000
John Patrick Banovetz	officer: Sr Vice President	3M CENTER, MAPLEWOOD MN 55144
Zoe L Dickson	officer: Executive Vice President	3M COMPANY, 3M CENTER, BLDG 220 09 E-02, ST. PAUL MN 55144-1000
Michael G. Vale	officer: Executive Vice President	3M CENTER OFFICE OF GENERAL COUNSEL, ST PAUL MN 551441000
Mojdeh Poul	officer: Executive Vice President	3M COMPANY OFFICE OF GENERAL COUNSEL, 3M CENTER, ST PAUL MN 55144-1000