MobileSmith (MobileSmith) Predictability Rank

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What is MobileSmith Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

MobileSmith Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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MobileSmith (MobileSmith) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Healthcare Providers & Services » MobileSmith Inc (OTCPK:MOSTQ) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

5400 Trinity Road, Suite 208, Raleigh, NC, USA, 27607

Website

https://www.mobilesmith.com

MobileSmith Inc is a developer of software applications for the healthcare industry. Its software products include a cloud-based collection of applications that run on its architected healthcare technology ecosystem. The architecture is designed to improve experience of healthcare patients and consumers, who are often at the same time members of various medical insurance networks; optimize delivery of healthcare and relationship between members and insurance networks; and increase adoption, utilization and intelligence of EMRs (electronic medical records), extend EMR's usability to patients and consumers of healthcare. It derives revenue from contracts for subscription to the suite of e-health mobile solutions and, ancillary services provided in connection with subscription services.

Executives

Christopher John Caramanico	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	2122 KIPAWA ST., RALEIGH NC 27607
Elchanan Epstein	director	59 ABBEY WOODS LN, DALLAS TX 75248-7900
Jerry Lepore	director	2660 CROOKED STICK LN, MT PLEASANT SC 29466
Robert L Smith	director	PARACELSUS HEALTHCARE CORP, 515 W GREENS ROAD SUITE 500, HOUSTON TX 77067
Raymond C Hemmig	director	2701 E. PLANO PKWY, #200, PLANO TX 75074
Randy Tomlin	director	6800 GREENHILL CT., PARKER TX 75002
Bob Dieterle	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O MOBILESMITH, INC., 5400 TRINITY RD., SUITE 208, RALEIGH NC 27607
Jon Campbell	director	C/O SMART ONLINE, INC., 4505 EMPEROR BLVD., SUITE 320, DURHAM NC 27703
Gleb Mikhailov	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O SMART ONLINE, INC., 4505 EMPEROR BLVD., SUITE 320, DURHAM NC 27703
Ronen Shviki	director	5 HAMEIRI STREET, RAMAT GAN L3 52651
Avy Lugassy	10 percent owner	126 CHEMIN DES HAUTS CRETS, 1253, VANDOEUVRES, GENEVA V8 00000
Brinson Robert Maddox Jr.	director	29 DOVER DR SE, ROME GA 30161
Amir Elbaz	director	5115 CAMPUS DRIVE, PLYMOUTH MEETING PA 19462
Thaddeus J Shalek	officer: Interim CFO	14679 CANOPY DRIVE, TAMPA FL 33626
Roberta B Hardy	director	4505 EMPEROR BLVD., SUITE 320, DURHAM NC 27703