MPAA (Motorcar Parts of America) Predictability Rank

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What is Motorcar Parts of America Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Motorcar Parts of America Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Motorcar Parts of America Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Motorcar Parts of America Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Vehicles & Parts » Motorcar Parts of America Inc (NAS:MPAA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

54M:Germany 54M:Germany

Address

2929 California Street, Torrance, CA, USA, 90503

Website

https://www.motorcarparts.com

Motorcar Parts of America Inc is a supplier of automotive aftermarket non-discretionary replacement parts and test solutions and diagnostic equipment. It operate in the non-discretionary automotive aftermarket for replacement hard parts in North America and includes products such as light-duty rotating electrical products, wheel hub products, brake-related products, and turbochargers. In addition, it sell test solutions and diagnostic equipment. The company operates in three segments Hard Parts, Test Solutions and Diagnostic Equipment and Heavy Duty. Key revenue is generated from Hard Parts, which includes (i) light duty rotating electric products such as alternators and starters, (ii) wheel hub products, (iii) brake-related products, including brake calipers, brake boosters, brake rotors.

Executives

Joseph Edwin Ferguson	director	5103 SOUTH GARTH AVENUE, LOS ANGELES CA 90056
David Bryan	director	605 STAPP ROAD, BOULDER CREEK CA 95006
Philip Gay	director	6300 CANOGA AVENUE, SUITE 1700, WOODLAND HILLS CA 91367
Bison Capital Partners Vi, L.p.	director	233 WILSHIRE BOULEVARD, SUITE 425, SANTA MONICA CA 90401
Bison Capital Partners Vi-a, L.p.	director	233 WILSHIRE BOULEVARD, SUITE 425, SANTA MONICA CA 90401
Douglas B Trussler	director	39 EAST UNION STREET, PASADENA CA 91103
Patricia W Warfield	director	2929 CALIFORNIA STREET, TORRANCE CA 90503
Rudolph J Borneo	director	50 O'FARRELL STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94108
Richard K Mochulsky	officer: Vice President, Sales	2929 CALIFORNIA STREET, TORRANCE CA 90505
Joffe Selwyn	director, officer: President, CEO & Chairman
Kamlesh Shah	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O MOTORCAR PARTS OF AMERICA, INC., 2929 CALIFORNIA STREET, TORRANCE CA 90503
David Sung Lee	officer: CFO	2929 CALIFORNIA STREET, TORRANCE CA 90503
Duane Franklin Miller	director	7811 FIELDSTONE RIDGE, CLARKSTON MI 48348
Jamy P. Rankin	director	C/O MOTOR CAR PARTS OF AMERICA, INC., 2929 CALIFORNIA STREET, TORRANCE CA 90503
Juliet Lynn Stone	officer: VP, Gen Counsel and Secretary	C/O MOTORCAR PARTS OF AMERICA, INC., 2020 CALIFORNIA STREET, TORRANCE CA 90503