MRC (MRC Global) Predictability Rank

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What is MRC Global Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

MRC Global Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

MRC Global Predictability Rank Related Terms

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MRC Global Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » MRC Global Inc (NYSE:MRC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

37M:Germany

Address

1301 McKinney Street, Suite 2300, Houston, TX, USA, 77010

Website

https://www.mrcglobal.com

MRC Global Inc distributes pipes, valves, fittings, and other infrastructure products and services to diversified gas utility, energy, and industrial end-markets. It provides supply chain solutions, technical product service and a digital platform for customers globally. It offers a range of PVF, oilfield supply, valve automation and modification, measurement, instrumentation, and other general and specialty products. Its geographical segments include the United States and International. It generates the majority of its revenue from the United States.

Executives

Daniel J Churay	officer: EVP-Corp Affrs, GC & Corp Sec.	MRC GLOBAL INC., 2 HOUSTON CENTER, 909 FANNIN, SUITE 3100, HOUSTON TX 77010
Leonard M Anthony	director	MRC GLOBAL INC., 2 HOUSTON CENTER, 909 FANNIN, SUITE 3100, HOUSTON TX 77010
Robert J. Saltiel	director, officer: President and CEO	4 GREENWAY PLAZA, HOUSTON TX 77046
Grant R Bates	officer: SVP-Operational Excellence/CIO	FULBRIGHT TOWER, 1301 MCKINNEY ST., SUITE 2300, HOUSTON TX 77010
Deborah G Adams	director	FULBRIGHT TOWER, 1301 MCKINNEY STREET, SUITE 2300, HOUSTON TX 77010
John P Mccarthy	officer: SVP-Supply Chain	1301 MCKINNEY STREET, SUITE 2300, HOUSTON TX 77010
Rance C Long	officer: SVP-Business Development	1301 MCKINNEY STREET, SUITE 2300, HOUSTON TX 77010
Kelly Youngblood	officer: Executive Vice President	15415 KATY FREEWAY, SUITE 100, HOUSTON TX 77094
Shweta Kurvey-mishra	officer: See Remarks	1301 MCKINNEY STREET, SUITE 2300, HOUSTON TX 77010
Anne Mcentee	director	1301 MCKINNEY STREET, SUITE 2300, HOUSTON TX 77010
Malcolm O'neal	officer: SVP - Human Resources	1301 MCKINNEY ST., SUITE 2300, HOUSTON TX 77010
Emily K. Shields	officer: See Remarks	1301 MCKINNEY ST., SUITE 2300, HOUSTON TX 77010
Stephen B. Smith	officer: See Remarks	1301 MCKINNEY ST., SUITE 2300, HOUSTON TX 77010
George John Damiris	director	100 CRESCENT COURT, SUITE 1600, DALLAS TX 75201
Ronald L Jadin	director	100 GRAINGER PARKWAY, LAKE FOREST IL 60045