MTEM (Molecular Templates) Predictability Rank

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What is Molecular Templates Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Molecular Templates Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Molecular Templates Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Molecular Templates Inc (NAS:MTEM) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

9301 Amberglen Boulevard, Suite 100, Austin, TX, USA, 78729

Website

https://www.mtem.com

Molecular Templates Inc is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on developing therapeutic agents that selectively target tumor cells for the treatment of individuals living with cancer. Its pipeline products are MT-6402, MT-8421 and MT-0169.

Executives

Biotech Target N V	10 percent owner	ARA HILL TOP BUILDING, UNIT A-5, PLETTERIJWEG OOST 1, CURACAO, WILLEMSTAD P8 000000
Maurizio Voi	officer: Chief Medical Officer	4 MAGUIRE ROAD, LEXINGTON MA 02421
Sean Mclennan	officer: CFO & Treasurer	C/O MOLECULAR TEMPLATES, INC., 93010 AMBERGLEN BLVD., SUITE 100, AUSTIN TX 78729
Kevin M. Lalande	director, 10 percent owner	201 WEST 5TH STREET, AUSTIN TX 78701
Shv Management Services, Llc	10 percent owner	FROST TOWER, 401 CONGRESS AVENUE, SUITE 2950, AUSTIN TX 78701
Gabriela Gruia	director	C/O TSCAN THERAPEUTICS, INC., 830 WINTER STREET, WALTHAM MA 02451
Jason S. Kim	officer: See Remarks	9301 AMBERGLEN BOULEVARD, SUITE 100, C/O MOLECULAR TEMPLATES, INC., AUSTIN TX 78729
Biotech Ag Bb	10 percent owner	SCHWERTSTRASSE 6, SCHAFFHAUSEN V8 8200
Longitude Capital Partners Iii, Llc	10 percent owner	800 EL CAMINO, SUITE 220, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Sanders Corazon (corsee) D.	director	C/O MOLECULAR TEMPLATES, INC., 9301 AMBERGLEN BLVD, SUITE 100, AUSTIN VI 78729
Patrick G Enright	10 percent owner	CO LONGITUDE CAPITAL PARTNERS LLC, 800 EL CAMINO REAL, SUITE 220, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Bakker Juliet Tammenoms	10 percent owner	LONGITUDE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT CO., LLC, 800 EL CAMINO REAL, SUITE 220, MENLO PARK CA 94025
David Hirsch	director, 10 percent owner	C/O LONGITUDE CAPITAL PARTNERS, LLC, 800 EL CAMINO REAL, SUITE 220, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Longitude Venture Partners Iii, L.p.	10 percent owner	800 EL CAMINO REAL, SUITE 220, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Scott D Morenstein	director	C/O CAXTON ALTERNATIVE MANAGEMENT LP, 1330 SIXTH AVENUE, 20TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019