What is Mullen Automotive Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Mullen Automotive Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Mullen Automotive Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
1405 Pioneer Street, Brea, CA, USA, 92821
Mullen Automotive Inc is engaged in manufacturing electric vehicles and building energy solutions. Its portfolio of vehicles is predominantly comprised of commercial trucks and other electric vehicles and includes; Mullen Class 1 Cargo Van, Mullen Three, Bollinger B4 Chassis Cab, and Mullen I-GO. The company's operating segments are Bollinger which derives maximum revenue, and Mullen Commercial.
Executives
| Calin Popa |
officer: Pres. Mullen Automotive |
1405 PIONEER STREET, BREA CA 92821 |
| Chester A. Bragado |
officer: CAO |
1405 PIONEER STREET, BREA CA 92821 |
| Ignacio Novoa |
director |
1405 PIONEER STREET, BREA CA 92821 |
| Mary Winter |
director, officer: Secretary |
1405 PIONEER STREET, BREA CA 92821 |
| David Michery |
director, officer: CEO, President |
1875 CENTURY PARK EAST, 6TH FLOOR, SUITE 73, CENTURY CITY CA 90067 |
| Jonathan New |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
12100 NE 16TH AVENUE, #210, NORTH MIAMI FL 33161 |
| Kent Puckett |
director |
1405 PIONEER STREET, BREA CA 92821 |
| John Kevin Andersen |
director |
1405 PIONEER STREET, BREA CA 92821 |
| Jerry Alban |
director, officer: COO |
1405 PIONEER STREET, BREA CA 92821 |
| Mark Betor |
director |
1405 PIONEER STREET, BREA CA 92821 |
| Kerri Sadler |
officer: CFO |
1405 PIONEER STREET, BREA CA 92821 |
| William Miltner |
director |
1405 PIONEER STREET, BREA CA 92821 |
| Todd Raarup |
director |
133 PROSPECTOR LANE 4102, ASPEN CO 81611 |
| John Roland |
director |
3370 NE 190 STREET APT. 2108, AVENTURA FL 33180 |
| John Joseph Wiegand |
director |
1250 EASTON ROAD, SUITE 190 A, HORSHAM PA 19044 |
Quick Browse
Personalize
Premium Gurus 
Create New Portfolio
Portfolio Contest
MULN has been successfully added to your