MUSA (Murphy USA) Predictability Rank


MUSA Murphy USA Inc MUSA
85 GF Score
Price $531.09
GF Value $456.49
Valuation Modestly Overvalued
! 4 Warning Signs
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What is Murphy USA Predictability Rank?

4 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Murphy USA Predictability Rank Related Terms

MUSA
85GF Score
Murphy USA Inc MUSA
Predictability Rank is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
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Murphy USA Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Is Murphy USA (MUSA) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Murphy USA stock appears to be overvalued. The current stock price of $531.09 is trading 16.3% above its estimated GF Value™ of $456.49. GuruFocus considers Murphy USA to be Modestly Overvalued.

Key valuation signals for MUSA:

  • Predictability Rank:
  • GF Value™: $456.49 vs. price of $531.09 (16.3% above fair value)
  • GF Score™: 85/100 with 4 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the MUSA stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.

Murphy USA Business Description

Other Exchanges MUSA1:Mexico
Address 200 Peach Street, El Dorado, AR, USA, 71730-5836
Murphy USA Inc is mainly engaged in the marketing of retail motor fuel products and convenience merchandise through a network of several retail stores in the Southwest, Southeast, Midwest, and Northeast United States. The majority of Murphy USA's stores are located in proximity to Walmart Supercenters, but it also operates standalone stores that market gasoline and other products under the Murphy USA, Murphy Express, and QuickChek brands. In addition, the company also markets fuel to unbranded wholesale customers through a mixture of company-owned and third-party product distribution terminals and pipeline positions. The firm generates maximum revenue through retail sales of petroleum products, and the rest from merchandise sales and wholesale of petroleum products.
85GF Score

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Predictability Rank is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

$531.09
Price
$456.49
GF Value