What is Inotiv Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Inotiv Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Inotiv Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
2701 Kent Avenue, West Lafayette, IN, USA, 47906
Inotiv Inc is a pharmaceutical development company specializing in nonclinical and analytical drug discovery and development services to the pharmaceutical, chemical, and medical device industries. It operates in two segments; Discovery and Safety Assessment (DSA) and Research Models and Services (RMS). Through the DSA segment, it supports the discovery, nonclinical development, and clinical development needs of researchers and clinicians for small molecule drug candidates, as well as biotherapeutics and biomedical devices. Through the RMS segment, it offers access to a wide range of small and large research models for basic research and drug discovery and development, as well as specialized models for specific diseases and therapeutic areas. It earns maximum revenue from RMS Segment.
Executives
| John Gregory Beattie |
officer: Chief Operating Officer |
C/O BIOANALYTICAL SYSTEMS, INC., 2701 KENT AVENUE, WEST LAFAYETTE IN 47906 |
| Michael Garrett |
officer: Chief Commercial Officer |
250 PEHLE DRIVE, SUITE 601, SADDLE BROOK NJ 07663 |
| Andrea Castetter |
officer: SVP, Gen. Counsel & Secretary |
2701 KENT AVENUE, WEST LAFAYETTE IN 47906-1382 |
| Mary Theresa Coelho |
director |
52 SUNRISE PARK ROAD, NEW HAMPTON NY 43017 |
| John E Sagartz |
director, officer: Chief Strategy Officer |
19 WORTHINGTON ACCESS DRIVE, MARYLAND HEIGHTS MO 63043 |
| David Landman |
director |
2701 KENT AVENUE, WEST LAFAYETTE IN 47906-1382 |
| Robert Jr. Leasure |
director, officer: President and CEO |
C/O BIOANALYTICAL SYSTEMS, INC., 2701 KENT AVENUE, WEST LAFAYETTE IN 47906-1382 |
| Beth Taylor |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
3000 KENT AVENUE, SUITE A1-100, WEST LAFAYETTE IN 47906 |
| Jeffrey Arthur Krupp |
officer: Chief Human Resources Officer |
2701 KENT AVENUE, WEST LAFAYETTE IN 47906-1382 |
| William D Pitchford |
officer: Chief Human Resources Officer |
1000 SAGAMORE PARKWAY SOUTH, LAFAYETTE IN 47905 |
| R Matthew Neff |
director |
535 N. COLLEGE DRIVE, CARMEL IN 46032 |
| Jeffrey Brennan Freeman |
officer: VP-Finance & Corp. Controller |
2701 KENT AVENUE, WEST LAFAYETTE IN 47906-1382 |
| Davis Gregory Cole |
director |
C/O BIOANALYTICAL SYSTEMS, INC., 2701 KENT AVENUE, WEST LAFAYETTE IN 47906 |
| Nigel Brown |
director |
250 PEHLE AVENUE, SUITE 600, SADDLE BROOK NJ 07663 |
| Scott Cragg |
director |
660 MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10065 |
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