NUVL (Nuvalent) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2021. Start your Free Trial

What is Nuvalent Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Nuvalent Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Nuvalent Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Nuvalent's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Nuvalent Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Nuvalent Inc (NAS:NUVL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

One Broadway, 14th Floor, Cambridge, MA, USA, 02142

Website

https://www.nuvalent.com

Nuvalent Inc is a clinical stage biopharmaceutical company focused on creating precisely targeted therapies for patients with cancer. All of the Company's operations are in the United States. The company is engaged in developing small molecules that are designed to overcome the limitations of existing therapies for clinically proven kinase targets. The product candidates of the company include NVL-520, which is being developed for patients with ROS1-positive non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), NVL-655, which is being developed for patients with anaplastic lymphoma kinase (ALK)-positive NSCLC, NVL-330, is a brain-penetrant human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-selective inhibitor designed to address the combined medical need of treating tumors driven by HER2ex20.

Executives

Alexandra Balcom	officer: Chief Financial Officer	ONE BROADWAY, 14TH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Matthew Shair	director	ONE BROADWAY, 14TH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
James Richard Porter	director, officer: President and CEO	ONE BROADWAY, 14TH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Darlene Noci	officer: See Remarks	ONE BROADWAY, 14TH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
James E Flynn	director, 10 percent owner, other: Director by Deputization	780 THIRD AVENUE, 37TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Deborah Ann Miller	officer: Chief Legal Officer	C/O NUVALENT, INC., ONE BROADWAY, 14TH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Emily Conley	director	C/O NUVALENT, INC., ONE BROADWAY 14TH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Hack Andrew A. F.	director	300 THIRD STREET, FIRST FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Anna Protopapas	director	MILLENNIUM PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 40 LANDSDOWNE STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Christopher Durant Turner	officer: Chief Medical Officer	ONE BROADWAY, 14TH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Deerfield Mgmt L.p.	director, 10 percent owner, other: * Director by deputization	780 THIRD AVENUE, 37TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Deerfield Partners, L.p.	director, 10 percent owner, other: Director by Deputization	345 PARK AVENUE SOUTH, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10010
Michael L. Meyers	director	C/O SYNDAX PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 400 TOTTEN POND ROAD, SUITE 110, WALTHAM MA 02451
Deerfield Private Design Fund Iv, L.p.	director, 10 percent owner, other: Director by Deputization	780 THIRD AVENUE 37TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Robert Bowers Jackson	director	C/O NUVALENT, INC., ONE BROADWAY, 14TH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142