OIA (Invesco Muniome Opps Trust) Predictability Rank

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What is Invesco Muniome Opps Trust Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Invesco Muniome Opps Trust Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Invesco Muniome Opps Trust Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » Invesco Muni Income Opps Trust (NYSE:OIA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1555 Peachtree Street, N.E., Suite 1800, Atlanta, GA, USA, 30309

Website

https://www.invesco.com

Invesco Muni Income Opps Trust operates as a diversified closed-end management investment company. Its investment objective is to provide a high level of current income which is exempt from federal income tax.

Executives

Glenn Eugene Brightman	officer: President & PEO	570 CARILLON PARKWAY, ST. PETERSBURG FL 33716
Tony Wong	director, officer: Senior Vice President	1331 SPRING STREET NW, SUITE 2500, ATLANTA GA 30309
Stephanie Butcher	officer: Senior Vice President	1555 PEACHTREE ST. NE, ATLANTA GA 30309
Melanie Ringold	officer: SVP, CLO and Secretary	1555 PEACHTREE STREE NE, SUITE 1800, ATLANTA GA 30309
Terry Vacheron	officer: Chief Financial Officer	1555 PEACHTREE ST. NE, SUITE 1800, ATLANTA GA 30309
Mark William Gregson	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	1555 PEACHTREE STREET NE, ATLANTA GA 30309
Bordewick James R Jr	officer: Senior Officer & SVP	C/O BANC OF AMERICA INVESTMENT ADVISORS, 100 FEDERAL STREET, BOSTON MA 02110
Adrien Deberghes	officer: Vice President,PFO & Treasurer	1555 PEACHTREE STREET NE SUITE 1800, ATLANTA GA 30309
Laura Allison Dukes	officer: SMD and CFO	780 JOHNSON FERRY ROAD, SUITE 800, ATLANTA GA 30342
Loren M Starr	director
Meadows Colin	director	1360 PEACHTREE STREET, ATLANTA GA 30309
Kevin M Carome	director
Annette Lege	director, officer: CFO & CAO	1555 PEACHTREE ST. NE, SUITE 1800, ATLANTA GA 30309
Todd F Kuehl	officer: Chief Compliance officer	1555 PEACHTREE STREET NE, ATLANTA GA 30309
Daniel S Vandivort	other: Trustee	1555 PEACHTREE STREET NE, SUITE 1800, ATLANTA GA 30309