OMI (Owens & Minor) Predictability Rank

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What is Owens & Minor Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Owens & Minor Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Owens & Minor Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Distribution » Owens & Minor Inc (NYSE:OMI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

6OM:Germany

Address

10900 Nuckols Road, Suite 400, Glen Allen, VA, USA, 23060

Website

https://www.owens-minor.com

Owens & Minor Inc distributes consumable medical supplies to a variety of providers. The business is under two segments: Products & Healthcare Services and Patient Direct. The Products & Healthcare Services segment manufactures and sources medical surgical products through its production and kitting operations and provides medical supplies and solutions for the prevention of healthcare-associated infections across the acute and alternate site channels. The Patient Direct segment provides delivery of disposable medical supplies sold directly to patients and home health agencies. Majority of the revenue is generated from Products & Healthcare Services segment.

Executives

Jonathan A Leon	officer: SVP, Corporate Treasurer	OWENS & MINOR, INC., 9120 LOCKWOOD BLVD, MECHANICSVILLE VA 23116
Snehashish Sarkar	other: Chief Information Officer	OWENS & MINOR INC., 9120 LOCKWOOD BLVD, MECHANICSVILLE VA 23116
Perry A Bernocchi	officer: EVP & CEO Patient Direct	OWENS & MINOR, INC, 9120 LOCKWOOD BLVD, MECHANICSVILLE VA 23116
Mark A Beck	director	2200 PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE, NW, SUITE 800W, WASHINGTON DC 20037
Alexander J Bruni	officer: EVP, CFO	OWENS & MINOR, INC., 9120 LOCKWOOD BLVD, MECHANICSVILLE VA 23116
Heath H Galloway	officer: EVP,General Counsel & CorpSecy	OWENS & MINOR, INC, 9120 LOCKWOOD BLVD, MECHANICSVILLE VA 23116
Michael Wayne Lowry	other: & Interim Chief Acctg Officer	9120 LOCKWOOD BOULEVARD, MECHANICSVILLE VA 23116
Edward A Pesicka	director, officer: President & CEO	9120 LOCKWOOD BLVD, MECHANICSVILLE VA 23116
Robert J Henkel	director	C/O OWENS & MINOR, INC., 9120 LOCKWOOD BLVD, MECHANICSVILLE VA 23116
Carissa Rollins	director	5200 ILLUMINA WAY, SAN DIEGO CA 92122
Tammy L Gomez	officer: EVP, CHRO	OWENS & MINOR, INC., 9120 LOCKWOOD BOULEVARD, MECHANICSVILLE VA 23116
Jeffrey T Jochims	officer: EVP, Strategy & Solutions	OWENS & MINOR, INC., 9120 LOCKWOOD BLVD, MECHANICSVILLE VA 23116
Teresa L. Kline	director	C/O INTERSECT ENT, INC., 1555 ADAMS DRIVE, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Rita Johnson-mills	director	C/O BROOKDALE SENIOR LIVING INC., 111 WESTWOOD PLACE, SUITE 400, BRENTWOOD TN 37027
Gwendolyn M Bingham	director	C/O OWENS & MINOR, INC., 9120 LOCKWOOD BLVD, MECHANICSVILLE VA 23116