PDT (John Hancock Premium Div Fund) Predictability Rank

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What is John Hancock Premium Div Fund Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

John Hancock Premium Div Fund Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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John Hancock Premium Div Fund Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » John Hancock Premium Div Fund (NYSE:PDT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

200 Berkeley Street, Boston, MA, USA, 02116

Website

https://www.jhinvestments.com

John Hancock Premium Div Fund II is a United States-based closed-end management investment company. It seeks to provide a high current income consistent with modest growth of capital. The fund will pursue its objective by investing in a diversified portfolio comprised of dividend-paying preferred securities and common equity securities. The portfolio composition of the fund consists of preferred securities, common stocks, corporate bonds, and short-term investments.

Executives

Dean Garfield	director	C/O JOHN HANCOCK, 200 BERKELEY STREET, BOSTON MA 02116
Noni L Ellison	director	TRACTOR SUPPLY, 5401 VIRGINIA WAY, BRENTWOOD TN 37027
Andy Mcfetridge	officer: Director of the Adviser	200 BERKELEY STREET, BOSTON MA 02116
Kristie Feinberg	officer: President & CEO of the Adviser	C/O JOHN HANCOCK, 200 BERKELEY STREET, BOSTON MA 02116
York Lo	officer: Vice President, Investments	C/O JOHN HANCOCK, 200 BERKELEY STREET, BOSTON MA 02116
Kathryn Hayes	other: Filer and Employee of the Fund	C/O JOHN HANCOCK, 200 BERKELEY STREET, BOSTON MA 02116
Patricia Lizarraga	director	C/O JOHN, 200 BERKELEY STREET, BOSTON MA 02116
Paul Lorentz	director	C/O JOHN HANCOCK, 200 BERKELEY STREET, BOSTON MA 02116
Arthur Pigott	officer: VP of the Adviser	C/O JOHN HANCOCK, 200 BERKELEY STREET, BOSTON MA 02116
Glen J Gibbons	officer: VP of the Adviser	C/O JOHN HANCOCK, 200 BERKELEY STREET, BOSTON MA 02116
Frances G Rathke	other: Trustee of the Fund	C/O GREEN MOUNTAIN COFFEE ROASTERS, INC., 33 COFFEE LANE, WATERBURY VT 05676
Brian Macphee	officer: Vice President of the Adviser	C/O JOHN HANCOCK, 164 CORPORATE DRIVE, PORTSMOUTH NH 03801
Sean Speer	officer: Vice President of the Adviser	C/O JOHN HANCOCK, 197 CLARENDON STREET, BOSTON MA 02116
Michael Tassinari	officer: Vice President of the Adviser	C/O JOHN HANCOCK, 200 BERKELEY STREET, BOSTON MA 02116
Christopher Pompilio	officer: Vice President of the Adviser	C/O JOHN HANCOCK, 200 BERKELEY STREET, BOSTON MA 02116