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PEV (Phoenix Motor) Predictability Rank


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What is Phoenix Motor Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Phoenix Motor Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Phoenix Motor Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Phoenix Motor's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Phoenix Motor Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Vehicles & Parts » Phoenix Motor Inc (NAS:PEV) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
ZAPP EVTV VLCN RIDEQ AYRO GEGI FFIE SOLO CENN EGOX TSLA TSE:7203 SZSE:002594 XTER:MBG XTER:BMW STLA XTER:VOW3 MIL:RACE TSE:7267 F
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
1500 Lakeview Loop, Anaheim, CA, USA, 92807
Website
https://www.phoenixmotorcars.com
Phoenix Motor Inc is an electrification solutions provider for the commercial vehicle industry as well as other industries. It designs, develops, manufactures, assembles, and integrates electric drive systems and light and medium-duty electric vehicles (EVs) and markets and sells electric vehicle chargers for the commercial and residential markets. The company operates two primary brands, Phoenix Motorcars, which focuses on commercial products including medium-duty electric vehicles, chargers, and electric forklifts, and EdisonFuture which intends to offer light-duty electric vehicles.
Executives
Edisonfuture, Inc. 10 percent owner 1500 LAKEVIEW LOOP, ANAHEIM CA 92807
Palo Alto Clean Tech Holding Ltd 10 percent owner 81 ADAM WAY, ATHERTON CA 94027
Wenbing Wang officer: Chief Financial Officer 21ST FLOOR, BUILDING B, JIA MING CENTER, NO. 27 DONG SAN HUAN NORTH ROAD, CHAOYANG DISTRICT, BEIJING F4 100020
John Perkowski director TYG CENTER TOWER B, SUITE 2601, DONG SAN HUAN BEI LU BING 2, BEIJING F4 100027
Hoong Khoeng Cheong director #04-152, BLOCK 532, BUKIT BATOK ST 5 1, SINGAPORE U0 650532
Xiaofeng Peng director, officer: Chairman 4677 OLD IRONSIDES DRIVE, SUITE 190, SANTA CLARA CA 95054
Liang Lance Zhou director, officer: Chief Executive Officer 1500 LAKEVIEW LOOP, ANAHEIM CA 92807
Zhenxing Fu director 1500 LAKEVIEW LOOP, ANAHEIM CA 92807
Sam Van director 1500 LAKEVIEW LOOP, ANAHEIM CA 92807
Steven E. Stivers director 1500 LAKEVIEW LOOP, ANAHEIM CA 92807