PHT (Pioneer Highome Trust) Predictability Rank

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What is Pioneer Highome Trust Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Pioneer Highome Trust Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Pioneer Highome Trust Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » Pioneer High Income Trust (NYSE:PHT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

60 State Street, Boston, MA, USA, 02109

Website

https://www.amundi.com

Pioneer High Income Trust is a closed-end management investment company. Its investment objective is to provide a high level of current income and to seek capital appreciation by investing predominantly in below investment grade (high-yield) debt securities, loans, and preferred stocks.

Executives

Yana Karalnik	officer: CHIEF COMPLIANCE OFFICER	60 STATE STREET, BOSTON MA 02109
Michael Melnick	officer: Assistant Treasurer	60 STATE STREET, BOSTON MA 02109
Koenig Anthony J Jr	officer: Treasurer	60 STATE STREET, BOSTON MA 02109
Craig C Mackay	officer: Trustee	75 WEST 125TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10027
Diane Durnin	other: Trustee	60 STATE STREET, BOSTON MA 02109
Baumgardner John E Jr.	other: Trustee	60 STATE STREET, BOSTON MA 02109
John Michael Malone	officer: Chief Compliance Officer	60 STATE STREET, BOSTON MA 02019
Matthew B Shulkin	other: Affiliated Person	60 STATE STREET, C/O AMUNDI PIONEER, BOSTON MA 02109
Mark Edward Bradley	officer: ASSISTANT TREASURER	60 STATE STREET, BOSTON MA 02109
Lorraine H Monchak	other: Trustee	60 STATE STREET, PIONEER INVESTMENTS, BOSTON MA 02109
Fred J Ricciardi	other: Trustee	60 STATE STREET, BOSTON MA 02109
Lisa Jones	officer: Chief Executive Officer	60 STATE STREET, PIONEER INVESTMENTS, BOSTON MA 02109
Bank Of America Na	10 percent owner	100 N. TRYON STREET, CHARLOTTE NC 28255
Blue Ridge Investments, L.l.c.	10 percent owner	ONE BRYANT PARK, NEW YORK NY 10036
Marc O Mayer	other: Trustee	C/O ALLIANCE CAPITAL, 1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10105