Phunware (Phunware) Predictability Rank

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What is Phunware Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Phunware Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Phunware Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Phunware (Phunware) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Phunware Inc (NAS:PHUN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

2RJ:Germany

Address

1002 West Avenue, Austin, TX, USA, 78701

Website

https://www.phunware.com

Phunware Inc is a software company. It is a Multiscreen as a Service (MaaS) integrated enterprise software platform for mobile that provides companies with the products, solutions, and data and services necessary to engage, manage and monetize its mobile application audiences. The company's segments include Phunware and Lyte. It generates maximum revenue from the Lyte segment.

Executives

Michael Snavely	officer: Chief Revenue Officer	3 CRABAPPLE COURT, AUSTIN TX 78738
Eric Manlunas	director	7800 SHOAL CREEK BLVD., SUITE 230-S, AUSTIN TX 78757
Troy Lee Reisner	officer: Chief Financial Officer	8374 RAPHAEL LANE, LITTLETON CO 80125
Ryan Costello	director	934 GARLINGTON CIRCLE, WEST CHESTER PA 19380
Alan S Knitowski	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	2 SAN JOAQUIN PLAZA, SUITE 240, NEWPORT BEACH CA 92660
Russell C Buyse	director	1136 ELDER CIR, AUSTIN TX 78733
Stephen Chen	director	29 GLEN ROAD, WESTBURY NY 11590
Matthew K. Lull	officer: Chief Cryptocurrency Officer	1279 W. PALMETTO PARK ROAD, UNIT # 272762, BOCA RATON FL 33486
Christopher D. Olive	officer: Chief Legal Officer	4316 LIVELY LANE, DALLAS TX 75220
Rahul Mewawalla	director	265 TURNER DRIVE, DURANGO CO 80202
Blythe Masters	director	1601 ELM STREET, SUITE 800, DALLAS TX 75201
Matt Aune	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O PHUNWARE INC, 7800 SHOAL CREEK BLVD SUITE 230-S, AUSTIN TX 78757
Lori Tauber Marcus	director	C/O THE CHILDREN'S PLACE, 500 PLAZA DRIVE, SECAUCUS NJ 07094
Randall Crowder	director, officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O PHUNWARE INC, 7800 SHOAL CREEK BLVD SUITE 230-S, AUSTIN TX 78757
Kathy Mayor	director	C/O PHUNWARE INC, 7800 SHOAL CREEK BLVD SUITE 230-S, AUSTIN TX 78757