Pliant Therapeutics (Pliant Therapeutics) Predictability Rank

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What is Pliant Therapeutics Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Pliant Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Pliant Therapeutics (Pliant Therapeutics) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Pliant Therapeutics Inc (NAS:PLRX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

9PT:Germany

Address

260 Littlefield Avenue, South San Francisco, CA, USA, 94080

Website

https://www.pliantrx.com

Pliant Therapeutics Inc is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on discovering and developing novel therapies for the treatment of fibrosis and related diseases. Its primary product candidate is bexotegrast (PLN-74809), an oral, small molecule, that the company is developing for the treatment of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, or IPF, and primary sclerosing cholangitis.

Executives

Hans Hull	officer: Chief Business Officer	C/O AVALANCHE BIOTECHNOLOGIES, INC., 1035 O'BRIEN DRIVE, SUITE A, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Eric Lefebvre	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O TOBIRA THERAPEUTICS, INC., 701 GATEWAY BOULEVARD, #200, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Keith Lamont Cummings	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O PLIANT THERAPEUTICS, INC., 260 LITTLEFIELD AVENUE, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Bernard Coulie	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O PLIANT THERAPEUTICS, INC., 260 LITTLEFIELD AVENUE, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Mike Ouimette	officer: General Counsel	C/O PLIANT THERAPEUTICS, INC., 260 LITTLEFIELD AVENUE, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Thomas A Mccourt	director	C/O IRONWOOD PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 100 SUMMER STREET, SUITE 2300, BOSTON MA 02110
Darren S Cline	director	35 CAMBRIDGE PARK DRIVE, CAMBRIDGE MA 02140
Lily Cheung	officer: Chief Human Resource Officer	260 LITTLEFIELD AVENUE, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Katharine Knobil	director	C/O KALEIDO BIOSCIENCES, INC., 65 HAYDEN AVE., LEXINGTON MA 02421
Pyott David E I	director	C/O ALLERGAN, 2525 DUPONT DRIVE, IRVINE CA 92612
Third Rock Ventures Gp Iv, L.p.	10 percent owner	29 NEWBURY STREET, 3RD FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Kevin P Starr	10 percent owner	29 NEWBURY STREET, 3RD FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Smital Shah	director	C/O PLIANT THERAPEUTICS, INC., 260 LITTLEFIELD AVENUE, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Suzanne Louise Bruhn	director	C/O AEGLEA BIOTHERAPEUTICS, INC., 901 S. MOPAC EXPRESSWAY, SUITE 250, AUSTIN TX 78746
Redmile Group, Llc	10 percent owner	ONE LETTERMAN DRIVE, BUILDING D, SUITE D3-300, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94129