PNTG (Pennant Group) Predictability Rank

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What is Pennant Group Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Pennant Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Pennant Group Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Pennant Group Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Healthcare Providers & Services » Pennant Group Inc (NAS:PNTG) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

1ZU:Germany

Address

1675 East Riverside Drive, Suite 150, Eagle, ID, USA, 83616

Website

https://www.pennantgroup.com

Pennant Group Inc is engaged in providing healthcare services to patients of all ages, including the growing senior population, in the United States. It operates in multiple lines of business including home health, hospice, and senior living which includes the company's assisted living, independent living, and memory care communities across Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Oklahoma, Oregon, Texas, Utah, Washington, Wisconsin, and Wyoming. The company generates majority of its revenue from home health and hospice services segment, which includes its home health, hospice and home care businesses.

Executives

Joanne Stringfield	director	C/O THE PENNANT GROUP, INC., 1675 E. RIVERSIDE DRIVE, SUITE 120, EAGLE ID 83616
Brent Guerisoli	officer: President	1675 E RIVERSIDE DR, SUITE 150, EAGLE ID 83616
Jennifer Freeman	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O THE PENNANT GROUP, INC., 1675 E. RIVERSIDE DRIVE, SUITE 120, EAGLE ID 83616
Lynette Walbom	officer: Chief Financial Officer	1675 E. RIVERSIDE DR., SUITE 150, EAGLE ID 83616
John J Gochnour	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O THE PENNANT GROUP, INC., 1675 E. RIVERSIDE DRIVE, SUITE 100, EAGLE ID 83616
Barry M Smith	director	4800 N SCOTTSDALE RD, SUITE 5000, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85251
John G. Nackel	director	27101 PUERTA REAL, SUITE 450, MISSION VIEJO CA 92691
Christopher R. Christensen	director	27101 PUERTA REAL, SUITE 450, MISSION VIEJO CA 92691
Morris Gregory K Sr.	director	1675 E RIVERSIDE DR, SUITE 150, EAGLE ID 83616
Daniel H Walker	director, officer: See Remarks	C/O THE PENNANT GROUP, INC., 1675 E. RIVERSIDE DRIVE, STE 150, EAGLE ID 83616
Derek J Bunker	officer: See Remarks	C/O THE PENNANT GROUP, INC., 1675 E. RIVERSIDE DRIVE, STE 150, EAGLE ID 83616
Scott E Lamb	director	ICU MEDICAL, INC., 951 CALLE AMANECER, SAN CLEMENTE CA 92673
Roderic W Lewis	director
Covey Stephen M R	director
Ensign Group, Inc	10 percent owner	29222 RANCHO VIEJO RD., SUITE 127, SAN JUAN CAPISTRANO CA 92675