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PPSPRA.PFD (Post Properties) Predictability Rank


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What is Post Properties Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Post Properties Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Post Properties Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Post Properties's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Post Properties Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Post Properties Inc is a Georgia corporation, which was incorporated on January 25, 1984, and is the successor by merger to the original Post Properties, Inc., a Georgia corporation, which was formed in 1971. It is a self-administrated and self-managed equity real estate investment trust (REIT). The Company and its subsidiaries develop, own and manage upscale multi-family apartment communities in selected markets in the United States. The operating divisions of the Company include Post Apartment Management, Post Investment Group and Post Corporate Services. Post Apartment Management is responsible for the day-to-day operations of all Post(r) communities including community leasing, property management, personnel recruiting, training and development, maintenance and security. Post Apartment Management also conducts short-term corporate apartment leasing activities. It is responsible for all development, acquisition, rehabilitation, disposition, for-sale and asset management activities of the Company. For development, this includes site selection, zoning and regulatory approvals, project design and construction management. This division is also responsible for apartment community acquisitions as well as property dispositions and strategic joint ventures that the Company undertakes as part of its investment plan. Post Corporate Services provides executive direction and control to the Company's other divisions and subsidiaries and has responsibility for the creation and implementation of all Company financing, capital and risk management strategies. All accounting, management reporting, compliance, information systems, human resources, legal, risk management and insurance services required by the Company and all of its affiliates are centralized in Post Corporate Services. The Company, through its wholly-owned subsidiaries, is the general partner and owns a majority interest in the Operating Partnership which, through its subsidiaries, conducts all of the on-going operations of the Company. At December 31, 2009, approximately 35.4%, 23.1%, 11.2% and 10.8% (on a unit basis) of the Company's communities were located in the Atlanta, Georgia, Dallas, Texas, the greater Washington, D.C. and Tampa, Florida metropolitan areas, respectively. At December 31, 2009, 19,863 apartment units in 55 apartment communities, including 1,747 apartment units in five communities held in unconsolidated entities and 1,428 apartment units in four communities currently under construction and/or in lease-up. The Company is also developing and selling 277 luxury for-sale condominium homes in two communities (including 129 units in one community held in an unconsolidated entity) and is completing the sell out of units in one condominium community through a taxable REIT subsidiary. The Company competes for residents in its apartment communities based on its high level of resident service, the quality of its apartment communities and the desirability of its locati
Executives
Morgan John F., Sr. director C/O WEYERHAEUSER COMPANY, 220 OCCIDENTAL AVENUE SOUTH, SEATTLE WA 98104
David C. Ward officer: EVP & Chief Investment Officer 4401 NORTHSIDE PARKWAY, SUITE 800, ATLANTA GA 30327
Toni Jennings director C/O NEXTERA ENERGY, INC., 700 UNIVERSE BLVD, JUNO BEACH FL 33408
Donald C Wood director 909 ROSE AVENUE - SUITE 200, NORTH BETHESDA MD 20852
Sheila J. Teabo officer: Senior Vice Pres. 4401 NORTHSIDE PARKWAY, SUITE 800, ATLANTA GA 30327
Charles A. Konas officer: Executive Vice Pres. 4401 NORTHSIDE PARKWAY, SUITE 800, ATLANTA GA 30327
David R. Schwartz director 4401 NOTHSIDE PARKWAY, SUITE 800, ATLANTA GA 30327-3057
Dale Anne Reiss director 589 KINZIE ISLAND COURT, SANIBEL FL 33957
Stella Ferguson Thayer director 4401 NORTHSIDE PARKWAY,, SUITE 800, ATLANTA GA 30327
Deriso Walter M Jr director 1111 BAY AVENUE, SUITE 501, COLUMBUS GA 31901
Douglas Ii Crocker director C/O COLONY NORTHSTAR, INC., 515 S. FLOWER ST., 44TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Thomas D Senkbeil officer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer
Herschel M Bloom director 755 LEE STREET, PO BOX 272, ALEXANDER CITY AL 35011-0272
Christopher J Papa officer: Chief Financial Officer 4401 NORTHSIDE PARKWAY, SUITE 800, ATLANTA GA 30327
Nicholas B Paumgarten director C/O JP MORGAN CHASE, 227 PARK AVE 45TH FL, NEW YORK NY 10172

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